Who will win the Republican nomination?

I don't think John McCain can win the nomination with an outright majority. Too much of the conservative base of the Republican Party is stacked against him. Depending on who does better on Super Tuesday, Romney and Huckabee ought to forge a deal to block McCain. Together they might have more delegates than McCain. I would not be surprised to see them finish out as a "combined ticket" depending on who is in second and third place respectively.

I voted for Mike Huckabee on Tuesday and was berated last week by Christians who were both Ron Paul supporters and Mitt Romney supporters. The Paul supporters thought I was making a bad choice in voting for a "fiscal liberal." The Romney supporters thought that I was helping McCain win by voting for Huckabee merely because he is the strongest pro-life candidate.

Thankfully, none of my Christian friends voted for McCain -- even though nationally he's getting a good slice of the evangelical vote. My friends who are Ron Paul supporters are either Christian Reconstructionists or those convinced that a "New World Order" is looming on the horizon and Paul is supposedly the only one who can save us from it. The few who voted for Romney are taken in by the idea that Huckabee could not possibly beat the Clintons -- even though he's stood up to their political machine in Arkansas and won -- twice.

I am amazed at the number of people who believe the media hype that McCain is destined to be coronated on Super Tuesday. Less than 10 percent of the delegates have been chosen. The daily tracking polls a few days after the Florida primary show Romney and McCain tied or within one percent of each other at around 29 percent nationally. Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee's support has rebounded to around 20 percent. With the margin of error inherent in all polls, it's anybody's nomination.

What really surprises me is the daily tracking polls. Everyone assumed that with Thompson and Giuliani out of the race that all these votes would go to McCain or Romney and Huckabee's standing would continue to plummet. Yet Huckabee has gained about five percentage points this week in national polls while Romney and McCain are holding steady. No one has more than one-third of the voters yet in any poll.

A candidate needs 1,191 delegates to win a 51 percent majority.

This is how it stands before Super Tuesday.

McCain -- 93
Romney -- 59
Huckabee -- 40

If McCain finishes first in the "winner take all" states, he's in good shape to be the frontrunner. But if Romney and McCain split the big delegate contests evenly, then it's a close race in most of the upcoming primary states. If Huckabee can take Missouri, Alabama, Tennesee, Georgia and show well in Illinois, it won't make him the frontrunner, but he will move forward. There will still be a three man race with little more than half the delegates chosen.

Add to this the fact that McCain's negatives are higher among the conservative Republican base than Romney's and Huckabee's. Then consider that many of the contests are closed primaries in which only Republicans can vote. So even if McCain goes into the convention with the most delegates, a plurality does not guarantee the winner. An argument could be made that since most of the conservative base of Republicans went for someone other than McCain, then someone else should be the nominee. Then we are likely looking at Romney/Huckabee or a Huckabee/Romney ticket.

More on the Mike Huckabee rapist "pardon"

I voted for Mike Huckabee in the Florida primaries yesterday and I hope his lead in four or five states can hold up until Super Tuesday. I was almost persuaded not to vote for Huckabee over a month ago when ABC-TV ran a story on Mike Huckabee featuring an onscreen graphic that claimed the then-Arkansas governor pardoned a rapist who went on to murder two women in Missouri.

But Huckabee didn't pardon Wayne Dumond, the rapist who was released by an Arkansas parole board. The ABC graphic read, "Huckabee's Pardon: Rapist Struck Again After Release." This blatant distortion appeared beneath the December 5 Good Morning America segment for two minutes and 50 seconds of a three minute plus segment. I suppose I should not be so naive to think that the media won't engage in lies and distortions to spin the candidates' records and positions. But shouldn't there be more of an outcry over this?

The real issue is whether Huckabee "pressured" the parole board to make the decision to release Dumond. I've heard Huckabee's version of the story and some of the parole board's version. What people have to remember is that if it wasn't Huckabee's fault that this parole went forward, then it was the fault of the parole policies established under the prior governors, Bill Clinton and then Jim Guy Tucker who first commuted Wayne Dumond's sentence.

Hmm ... Who to believe? Who to believe?

"But I want to say one thing to the American people. I want you to listen to me. I'm going to say this again. I did not have sexual relations ... err, I mean ... I did not pressure the parole board to release Wayne Dumond. I never told anybody to lie, not a single time – never. These allegations are false."

Since Tucker is dead and Bill Clinton is not likely to be blamed, ABC and "Good Morning America" should at least apologize for lying to viewers with a bold claim that Huckabee pardoned a rapist.

The Real Jesus DVD

The Real Jesus: A Defense of the Historicity and Divinity of Christ

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Ever since the dawn of modern rationalism, skeptics have sought to use textual criticism, archeology and historical reconstructions to uncover the “historical Jesus” — a wise teacher who said many wonderful things, but fulfilled no prophecies, performed no miracles and certainly did not rise from the dead in triumph over sin.

Over the past 100 years, however, startling discoveries in biblical archeology and scholarship have all but vanquished the faulty assumptions of these doubting modernists. Regrettably, these discoveries have often been ignored by the skeptics as well as by the popular media. As a result, the liberal view still holds sway in universities and impacts the culture and even much of the church.

This presentation explodes the myths of these critics and the movies, books and television programs that have popularized their views.

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Speakers include: George Grant, Ted Baehr, Stephen Mansfield, Raymond Ortlund, Phil Kayser, David Lutzweiler, Jay Grimstead, J.P. Holding, and Eric Holmberg.

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Leading Social Conservative in Florida Switches From Thompson to Mike Huckabee

A friend of mine here in the Orlando area, John Stemberger, has changed his endorsement from Fred Thompson to Mike Huckabee. Simply, Huckabee endorses a sanctity of life and marriage amendment to the Constitution, while Thompson does not. John is the president of the Florida Family Policy Council (associated with James Dobson's Focus On The Family) which is spearheading the Florida Marriage Protection Act, the only initiative that seeks to protect the definition of marriage in the state of Florida as between one man and one woman.

To: POLITICAL EDITORS

Contact: Alice Stewart of Huckabee for President, Inc., +1-501-324-2008

LITTLE ROCK, Ark., Jan. 14 /USNewswire/ -- John Stemberger, a leading voice in the conservative movement of Florida has switched his personal endorsement in the race for the Republican presidential nomination from former U.S. Senator Fred Thompson to former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.

Stemberger will be co-chairing the Mike Huckabee Faith and Family Values Coalition for Florida, it was announced today after he informed the Thompson campaign of his decision.

"Governor Huckabee is without question the best candidate to breathe new life and fresh hope into a nation and its people who are fed up with scandal, corruption and big-money power politics. Mike Huckabee is a proven leader with executive experience and a solid record as a champion for pro-life and pro-family values," Stemberger said. "As a result, he has won the trust of more social conservative leaders across America than any other candidate. He has also proven that he is a viable candidate who can take us all the way home by winning both the primary and the general elections."

Stemberger is the founder of the Institute for Conservative Studies at Florida State University and has been one of the leading pro-life, pro-family advocates in Florida over the past 25 years. He was a lobbyist for Florida Right to Life and served as the Political Director for the Republican Party of Florida during the final campaign of former President George H.W. Bush.

"Like Ronald Reagan before him, Mike Huckabee can restore common sense conservative leadership to America both at home and abroad," Stemberger said. "He will re-envision us to once again become 'one nation, under God' while ensuring 'liberty and justice for all."

Stemberger is a member of the Council for National Policy, the Arlington Group in Washington, D.C., and serves as the state chairman of Florida Marriage.org, the official sponsoring committee for the Florida Marriage Protection Amendment.

"John is a strong voice in the pro-life community. I welcome John's support and help in getting out my message that I have been a consistent voice for the right to life," Governor Huckabee said.

SOURCE Huckabee for President, Inc.