Bill Clinton: "If you were really pro-life, if you were really pro-life, you would want to put every doctor ... as an accessory to murder in prison."

Now here is a covenant breaker who is really epistemologically consistent:

"Tell the truth, tell the truth. If you were really pro-life, if you were really pro-life, you would want to put every doctor and every mother as an accessory to murder in prison."

- Bill Clinton

Bill Caught on Camera Lashing Out at Pro-Life Students in Steubenville

STEUBENVILLE, OHIO, February 18, 2008 (LifeSiteNews.com) - Agitated after being greeted by over a hundred pro-life students at a rally in Steubenville tonight, former U.S. President Bill Clinton lost his temper yet again after losing his cool at an Obama supporter in Canton, Ohio. This time, Clinton lashed out during his speech at the pro-life students:

"I gave you the answer. We disagree with you," Clinton said. "You wanna criminalize women and their doctors and we disagree. I reduced abortion. Tell the truth, tell the truth, If you were really pro-life, if you were really pro-life, you would want to put every doctor and every mother as an accessory to murder in prison. And you won't say you wanna do that because you know, that you wouldn't have a lick of political support. Now, the issue is who, the issue is, you can't name me anybody presently in politics that did more to introduce policies that reduce the number of real abortions instead of the hot air putting out to tear people up and make votes by dividing America. This is not your rally. I heard you. That's another thing you need is a president, somebody who will stick up for individual rights and not be pushed around, and she won't."

Clinton's heated response came after being questioned on his support of abortion-on-demand. The outburst is on YouTube and is also being reported by MSNBC.

"Perhaps pro-abortion politicians will finally realize that they can't hide their views from pro-life students," said Billy Valentine, one of the Franciscan University of Steubenville Students for Life members who helped organize the protest of over 100 students.

"Our generation is pro-life. It is amazing that these pro-abortion politicians think that they can continuously support the killing of millions of unborn children and no one will express their dissatisfaction. They think they don't ever have to answer questions about their pro-abortion policies or the money they receive from pro-abortion lobbying organizations. This generation will no longer tolerate these types of politicians, their rhetoric, or their pro-death policies," said Kristan Hawkins, Executive Director of Students for Life of America.

Br'er McCain and Huckabee Rabbit - How John McCain may still lose the nomination!

The John McCain camp informed us yesterday that it is "mathematically impossible" for Mike Huckabee to win the nomination. What they won't say is that McCain stands a good chance of losing the nomination as long as Huckabee stays in the race.

Huckabee only has to win half of the remaining delegates to block McCain from the nomination. And even if he falls a few short of that, many of the delegates in McCain's column will be "unbound" delegates who may in fact vote for anyone they choose on the first ballot.

This leads one to wonder: If it's really "mathematically impossible," then why does Huckabee want to be in the race? And why does John McCain so badly want him out?

Simply: Huckabee does not need to "win" in order for McCain to lose!

The idea of a "mathematical impossibility" is a clever rhetorical ploy that reminds me of "Br'er Rabbit and the Tar Baby" -- a story that is part of American plantation folklore. The tar baby was a trap -- a human figure made of tar -- used to capture Br'er Rabbit. Br'er Fox played on Br'er Rabbit's vanity and gullibility to goad him into attacking the fake baby and becoming stuck.

One version of the story has Br'er Rabbit in Br'er Fox's clutches and as he decides his fate, Br'er Rabbit keeps pleading, "I don't keer w'at you do wid me, Br'er Fox, so you don't fling me in dat brier-patch. Roas' me, Br'er Fox, but don't fling me in dat brier-patch! Drown me ez deep ez you please, Br'er Fox, but do don't fling me in dat brier-patch! Skin me, Br'er Fox, snatch out my eyeballs, t'ar out my yeras by de roots, en cut off my legs, but do please, Br'er Fox, don't fling me in dat brier-patch!"

You might know the rest. Br'er Fox threw him in "dat briar patch," which is where Br'er Rabbit wanted to be all along. It's a good analogy for the claim of "mathematical impossibility." It's exactly where Br'er "I-didn't-major-in-math-I-majored-in-miracles" Rabbit wants to be. And stupidly, Br'er McCain seems insistent in flinging him there.

If voters really believe that it's mathematically impossible for Huckabee to win, they will fall for the idea that it's impossible for McCain to lose. Then the only voters who will show up at the polls in full force will be Huckabee supporters. So while the "mathematically impossible" win is a clever rhetorical device, Huckabee can cause McCain to lose by simply keeping enough McCain voters from the polls and taking enough delegates from him to block the nomination.

The McCain camp thinks the "mathematically impossible" rhetorical trap will hide a few obvious facts from the voting public who tend to believe the media pundits rather than research how the nomination process actually works. This might in fact backfire as conservatives will resent the propaganda ploy of the "Republicans in name only" who want the election to be declared over before the voters have chosen all the delegates.

McCain will not be the nominee until he has 1,191 bound delegates pledged to him. John McCain is ahead with an estimated 804 delegates after Tuesday's contests compared to 240 for Mike Huckabee and 14 for Ron Paul.

Can no one in the media do the math? Or is it that they think the rest of us are too stupid to follow it? There are 774 delegates left to win. If John McCain has exactly 804 delegates (and 18 of these are uncommitted delegates who are still able to change their mind) then he needs an additional 387 to clinch the nomination with 1,191.

Ironically half of 774 is exactly 387!

So where is the mathematical impossibility here?

Huckabee only needs to get 51 percent of the remaining delegates to block McCain! Considering the results of the last week alone, he is more than able to do this.

Even though McCain is the delegate leader, unless reaches 1,191 delegates, he cannot win in the first round of the convention. If he loses and it goes to the second round for a vote, he is not guaranteed any of those delegates. Bound or pledged delegates are only committed to the winner of the primary to vote for that candidate in the first round. At the convention, if McCain does not get 51% of the delegate vote on the first round, then they vote again. In the next round, delegates can vote for anyone.

How does one get to be a delegate? The rules are different in each state, but in most people simply apply through the Republican state committee. A delegate might personally be for Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee or even Newt Gingrich, but be bound to another candidate in the first round.

Here's another amazing fact. Not all the delegates amassed by McCain are bound to vote for him in the first round! Each state allots both "bound" and "unbound" delegates. (I've been calling them "super delegates" in my other posts, but in reality this term is only used for the Democrat primaries.) The Democrat super delegates are party insiders likely to support the established frontrunner, while the Republican uncommitted delegates are similar, but they are more likely to vote for anyone they choose in the first round.

McCain currently has 796 bound delegates and 18 unbound delegates. McCain needs 395 bound delegates to reach 1191 of the remaining states.

Now here's the math (here I've again used my blue, red, purple code):

Likely for McCain
Likely for Huckabee
Likely for either

Wisconsin - 37 bound and 3 unbound
Puerto Rico - 20 bound and 3 unbound
Texas - 137 bound and 3 unbound!
Ohio - 0 bound and 88 unbound!
Rhode Island - 17 bound and 3 unbound
Vermont - 17 bound
Mississippi - 36 bound and 3 unbound
Pennsylvania - 0 bound and 74 unbound!
North Carolina - 69 bound!
Indiana - 27 bound and 30 unbound
Nebraska - 30 bound and 3 unbound
Hawaii - 20 bound
Kentucky - 45 bound
Oregon - 27 bound and 3 unbound
Idaho - 26 bound and 6 unbound
New Mexico - 29 bound and 3 unbound
South Dakota - 24 bound and 3 unbound

There are 561 bound delegates left. If we are speaking of the number of bound delegates that John McCain must win, then he needs 71% of the remaining 561 to reach 1191 bound delegates.

Huckabee will probably win Mississippi, Nebraska, Kentucky, and South Dakota. If this happens, then McCain would have to win just about every remaining delegate to be guaranteed enough bound delegates to win the nomination, and that is not likely to happen.

In fact, if Huckabee can win Texas and North Carolina it becomes really interesting once again. Texas, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nebraska, Kentucky, Idaho and South Dakota have 385 total delegates up for grabs. Just winning these states along with some delegates from close contests in other states could block the nomination from McCain.

The media pundits lump both bound and unbound delegates in their totals. This is very misleading. Huckabee may block McCain in the first round delegate vote at the convention and then win on a second, third or fourth ballot. Until someone has a majority, the candidates keep striking deals and the delegates keep voting.

Abraham Lincoln won the nomination on the fourth ballot in the Republican convention in 1860 although William Seward was the pre-convention favorite.

So while unlikely, if there is enough dissent in the GOP come summer, McCain could be denied the nomination if he doesn't have enough bound delegates. But even more likely, if he falls short of 1191 in both bound and unbound delegates, then a conservative coalition could arise that would nominate Huckabee or another conservative as the Republican candidate for President of the United States.

And don't put it past McCain from doing something really stupid before we get to that point!

Does McCain have the nomination wrapped up?

Some people may think it is crazy to hold out hope that John McCain can be defeated. I liken it to the NFL when a much maligned 7-4 team had little hope of getting to the Superbowl in early December 2007. But they pulled off a few wins on the road at the end of the year and the mediocre team suddenly had a wild card spot. From there it was just four wins to the Superbowl championship against the only 18-0 undefeated team in NFL history.

If Huckabee wins Texas, then he suddenly becomes the New York Giants of the world of politics. Texas wins him a wild card spot. Indiana, Oregon and New Mexico are his playoff games and the Republican Convention is his Superbowl.

I thought that in order for Mike Huckabee to have continued his unlikely march toward destiny yesterday, he needed at least an upset win in Virginia. But as soon as he lost in single digits, the news pundits were already saying it proved that John McCain is "not conservative enough" for most Republican voters.

Here was my hopeful prediction on how Huckabee could have pulled out a win:

Huckabee--44
McCain--43
Paul--8
Other--5

And here was the final vote:

McCain--51
Hucakabee--40
Paul--5
other--4

So while Virginia dampens the hope for a brokered convention, Huckabee still finished three points better than the most favorable poll predicted.

So is it all over? There is still a possibility for a brokered convention. Since Huckabee lost Virginia and Maryland, he just has to pick up wins in two or three states with an equal amount of delegates. Wisconsin, Indiana, Oregon, New Mexico are possibilities. A recent poll shows Huckabee within striking distance of upsetting McCain in Wisconsin.

McCain--48
Huckabee--37
Paul --7

A couple of factors weigh toward Huckabee's favor:

1. Low voter turn-out due to a lessening enthusiasm for McCain. The thought that he has it "wrapped up" actually works in Huckabee's favor. The Clinton-Obama drama drew close to three times the number of voters in Virginia. Look for this to continue in open primary states. The "Anybody-But-Hillary" Republicans are crossing over to vote for Obama. McCain loses votes each time the attention swings to Obama vs Hillary.

2. Ron Paul has suspended his campaign in order to seek re-election as a Texas representative. But Paul's supporters are tenacious and he still will pull in some votes. It is possible that the "Anybody But McCain" coalition could unite behind Huckabee and he could gain a percentage point or two from Paul's supporters. Others will stay home. They didn't come out in Virginia in the numbers I expected. On the other hand, a few diehard Paul supporters still hold out hope. Some may think that a vote for Huckabee is a vote for a brokered convention.

Texas is a must win for both candidates. McCain needs Texas to wrap up the nomination sooner than later. If McCain takes Texas, then it's over. Texas will be Huckabee's "last stand." Campaign contributions shot up after last week's big wins and guess where he's spending most of this money? But if Huckabee takes Texas, then it gets interesting again. After March 4, most of the contests swing toward Huckabee's natural territory.

Here's the revamped scenario for a brokered convention. I'll continue to track the mathematical possibility of blocking McCain -- as crazy and quixotic as it may seem to some. The blue states can still go to McCain, but Huckabee needs to take all the red states and two or three of the purple states.

Red states are "must wins" for Huckabee.
Blues states are likely to go to McCain.
Purple states -- Huckabee needs two or three of these

STATE----------- DATE ------- DELEGATES--- WINNER
Virginia --------02/12------- 63 W ------- McCain
Maryland---------02/12------- 37 C ------- McCain
D.C.-------------02/12------- 19 WC ------ McCain
Wisconsin--------02/19------- 40
Samoa------------02/23------- 9
Puerto Rico------02/24 ------ 23
Texas------------03/04-------140
Ohio ------------03/04 ------ 88
Rhode Island-----03/04------- 20
Vermont----------03/04------- 17 W
Mississippi------03/10------- 39
Pennsylvania-----03/22------- 74 C
Virgin Islands---04/04-------- 9
North Carolina---05/06------- 69
Indiana----------05/06------- 57
Nebraska---------05/13------- 33
Hawaii-----------05/16------- 20 C
Kentucky---------05/20------- 45 C
Oregon-----------05/20------- 30 C
Idaho------------05/27------- 32
New Mexico ------05/03------- 32 C
South Dakota-----06/03------- 27 C
____________________________
W: Winner take all
C: Closed primary
____________________________

Is Huckabee gaining on McCain in Virginia?

The SurveyUSA Poll below was actually taken on Saturday and Sunday. Half of those surveyed did not know about Huckabee's big wins in Louisiana and Kansas. Huckabee has gained 12 points while McCain has dropped nine. The huge 21 point bump is reflected in only half of those polled who knew of the big wins. Although this isn't scientific, I would guess that if the poll had been taken Sunday and Monday, we would see a further 5 point drop for McCain and at least 6 more points for Huckabee.

That would fit my prediction from earlier today:

Huckabee--44
McCain--43
Paul--8
Other--5

In another stunning development , Sean Hannity had Huckabee on his radio show today and later defended Huck's strategy of running for a brokered convention as plausible scenario. They even vowed to make up and be "pals" again. Hannity is now a card carrying member of the Anybody-But- McCain-Coalition!

Welcome back Sean, we love you once again!

- Jay Rogers

Huckabee Shows Movement In Virginia Poll

The last SurveyUSA poll before Virgina’s primary:

McCain 48% (-9)

Huckabee 37% (+12)

Eve of VA GOP Primary 2/11/08: Huckabee Closes-In On McCain: Big movement in Virginia following Mike Huckabee’s strong showing over the weekend in Louisiana, Kansas and Washington state. On the eve of the Virginia Republican Primary, it’s John McCain 48%, Mike Huckabee 37%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 72 hours ago, McCain is down 9, Huckabee is up 12. McCain had led by 32, now leads by 11.

Among Conservative voters, McCain had led by 21, now trails by 5.

Among Pro-Life voters, McCain had led by 20 points, now trails by 6.

Among voters in Southeast VA, McCain had led by 28, now trails by 12.

Among voters focused on Immigration, McCain had led by 16, now trails by 17.

Among voters who attend religious services regularly, McCain had led by 24, now trails by 2.

The ABC (Anybody But 'Cain) Coalition gains ground on John McCain!

Here's another interesting fact about John McCain's supposedly "commanding" lead.

The following is taken from RealClearPolitics.com:

McCain-----724
ABC*-------533

* the "Anybody But 'Cain" coalition is made up of delegates chosen for the following candidates:

Romney-----285
Huckabee---234
Paul--------14
______________
TOTAL------533

The way that the Republican primary rules work is that candidates get a disproportional amount of delegates for simply finishing with a plurality. McCain is a minority candidate with a plurality of delegates.

It's still possible for the ABC coalition to forge ahead in the coming three months and mathematically eliminate John McCain!

President: Mike Huckabee
Vice President: Mitt Romney
Secretary of the Treasury: Ron Paul (in charge of closing the IRS!)

That's the ticket that can take the White House in 2008!

How Huckabee can win big in Virginia

The most important primary for Mike Huckabee this week is Virginia, which is winner take all -- 63 delegates. It's almost a "must win" for Huckabee. It would be a huge win and give him great momentum. It's not over if he loses, but to keep his momentum going forward, he has to take all the Virginia delegates or do surprisingly well in both Virginia and Maryland.

Here is what the Mason Dixon poll showed for last Thursday and Friday.

McCain - 55%
Huckabee - 27%
Paul - 5%

If you are like me, you are saying, "Huh? Where are those missing 13 percent?"

These are the Romney supporters and the undecided voters. Conventional wisdom says that at least half of these go to Huckabee, a few to McCain and the rest stay home. So let's say that 7 percent of these go to Huckabee.

We also have to take into consideration that Saturday's results are going to energize the ABC (Anybody But 'Cain) base. Huckabee will get another "bump" from this. That gives him 5 more points easily. We also have to look at the low voter turn-out that led to Huckabee's victories in Louisiana and Kansas. If few of McCain's supporters turn out, it could skew the percentage vote toward Huckabee and Ron Paul, whose supporters are far more passionate and committed.

It could end up looking like this:

Huckabee - 44%
McCain - 43%
Paul - 8 %
Other - 5%

In an earlier post, I outlined how Mike Huckabee could win in 11 primary states and effectively block McCain from the nomination. I wrote that those states would most likely be: Louisiana, Kansas, Virginia, Maryland, Texas, Nebraska, Mississipi, North Carolina, Kentucky, Idaho, and South Dakota.

Now with Huckabee's blow out win in Kansas, a narrow win in Louisiana (a state he did not campaign in) and a surprising showing in Washington, I've become a little more optimistic that this could play out.

Below are my predictions for how the rest of the primaries could go if the current trend continues.

Red states are likely to go to Huckabee.
Blues states are likely to go to McCain.
Purple states could go either way.

STATE----------- DATE ----------- DELEGATES

Virginia --------02/12----------- 63 W
Maryland---------02/12----------- 37 C
D.C.-------------02/12------------19 WC
Wisconsin--------02/19----------- 40
Puerto Rico------02/24 ---------- 23
Texas------------03/04-----------140
Ohio ------------03/04 ---------- 88
Rhode Island-----03/04----------- 20
Vermont----------03/04----------- 17 W
Mississippi------03/10----------- 39
Pennsylvania-----03/22----------- 74 C
North Carolina---05/06----------- 69
Indiana----------05/06----------- 57
Nebraska---------05/13----------- 33
Hawaii-----------05/16----------- 20 C
Kentucky---------05/20----------- 45 C
Oregon-----------05/20----------- 30 C
Idaho------------05/27----------- 32
New Mexico ------05/03----------- 32 C
South Dakota-----06/03----------- 27 C
____________________________

W: Winner take all
C: Closed primary
____________________________

Huckabee doesn't have to win the nomination, but just block McCain and become the second candidate in a brokered convention. He can do this by winning most of the red states and get a few "surprise" victories in purple states.

At that point, he would choose Romney as a running mate and count on several hundred uncommitted delegates to push him over the top.

Mike Huckabee wins Kansas, Louisiana!

Two down, nine victories to go!

The ABC Coalition gains steam! (ABC: Anybody But 'Cain!)

Mike Huckabee has won victories in Kansas and Louisiana once again taking states where John McCain led in the polls only a week ago. I hoped Huckabee could win Louisiana and maybe Kansas. When the early caucus results came in, I was surprised to see the results in Kansas where he trounced McCain. Then seeing him go ahead early in Louisiana and show well in Washington surprised me again.

As I predicted, McCain supporters are staying home in droves and conservatives are casting protest votes for Huckabee. I wrote earlier today about how Mike Huckabee can effectively block John McCain's nomination by winning Louisiana, Kansas, Virginia, Mississipi, Nebraska, North Carolina, Kentucky, Maryland, Idaho, South Dakota, and Texas.

How Mike Huckabee can win big in 11 upcoming Republican primaries

Washington is now being contested due to the fact that McCain was declared the winner before all the ballots were counted. A surprise win in Washington would allow him a loss in a smaller state, but for now Texas and Virgina are must wins.

Huckabee gave a great speech at the CPAC meeting in Washington D.C. in the morning to thunderous applause. He lit a fire that is now spreading across America from the East to the Deep South to the Midwest to the Pacific Northwest!



You can also donate to Huckabee's campaign here:

https://www.mikehuckabee.com/?FuseAction=Contribute.Home&r=6348

How Mike Huckabee can win big in 11 upcoming Republican primaries

After crunching all the numbers in my entry entitled, "Is John McCain the Inevitable Nominee?" I got an email yesterday saying Mitt Romney had dropped out of the race. Romney said he would endorse McCain if he won the nomination.

Romney cited the "War on Terror" as a reason why he could not continue to try to forestall the nomination process and throw the GOP into a brokered convention. In reality though, the reason he dropped out is that in a three man race most of the remaining delegates are likely to go to McCain or Huckabee.

Key battle ground states for Romney would have been Virginia, Louisiana, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, Kentucky, Maryland, Idaho, South Dakota, Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island. He simply could not have picked up enough delegates in the southern states with Huckabee in the race. In fact, there isn't a single contest where Romney would have been a sure winner. Maybe Idaho and South Dakota?

Huckabee supporters now need to promote the following strategy.

1. Convince enough Romney voters to support Huckabee giving him a sizeable win in at least 11 of the upcoming primaries.

2. Promote the idea among McCain's supporters that the nomination is all wrapped up creating a sense of apathy to the point where many will stay home on primary day.

3. Promote the idea that since the nomination is probably all wrapped up for McCain, non-conservative Republicans in open primary states ought to vote for Obama to block another Clinton era in the White House.

Here's the rationale for this strategy.

With about 700 delegates in his column and 1,008 still to be chosen, McCain still needs to pick up 491 delegates in the remining state primaries to get to the magic number of 1,191. Simple math tells us that that he needs just to recoup 40 percent of the remaining delegates. Huckabee would have to win well over 500 of these remaining 1,008 delegates to block a majority for McCain.

Is it inevitable? Can Huckabee pull off one of the greatest political upsets of all time and defeat McCain? Although it's not very probably it is possible. It would be on the level of a baseball team taking four straight games to win a World Series after being down 0-3. It a phenomenon that happens every 100 years or so.

Here's a few things to consider:

1. Huckabee does not have to win 60 percent of the votes, but only the plurality in enough states to take enough delegates away from McCain to keep him from the majority.

2. The most likely scenario in which this could occur would be in outright wins in the following states: Virginia, Louisiana, Kansas, Mississipi, Nebraska, North Carolina, Kentucky, Maryland, Idaho, South Dakota, and Texas.

If he won these states decisively and picked up a few delegates in some others with a strong second place showing, he could get around 550 delegates, which would bring his total to over 700. That would effectively block a majority for McCain.

3. Huckabee would then need to convince the state parties whose primary voters went for Romney, that he is the more conservative choice over McCain. It's not a hard case to make. He could do it simply by choosing Romney as a runnning mate.

For now the key is to forestall McCain's nomination by winning in Virginia, Louisiana, Kansas, Mississipi, Nebraska, North Carolina, Kentucky, Maryland, Idaho, South Dakota, and Texas.

Can it be done?

It's amazing to me that conservative talk show hosts Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh were practically begging Huckabee to drop out of the race so that Romney would have a chance on Super Tuesday. Yet now that Romney is out, Huckabee is seen to have no chance.

But he does have a chance and here is why.

McCain supporters are going to stay home in droves thinking the nomination is wrapped up. Some Romney supporters will either switch to Huckabee or stay home. An even more startling development could be that in open primary states, the "Anybody-but-Hillary" Republicans will choose the Democrat ballot and vote for Barack Hussein Obama.

Lousiania and Kansas are holding closed primaries tomorrow, but in Washington state an open primary ballot opportunity may convince conservative Republicans to cast a protest vote for Obama.

If tomorrow's primaries show a trend in this direction, there may be a snowball effect and we will have a race again.

Romney quits! It's now a two man race!

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is expected to suspend his campaign today.

The only question is does he endorse McCain or Huckabee?

The following is from CNN:

Romney had won 270 delegates in through the Super Tuesday contests, compared with front-runner John McCain's 680.

Suspending a campaign has a different meaning depending on the party.

On the Republican side, decisions on how to allocate delegates is left to the state parties.

On the Democratic side, a candidate who "suspends" is technically still a candidate so he or she keeps both district and statewide delegates won through primaries and caucuses.

Superdelegates are always free to support any candidate at any time, whether the candidate drops out, suspends or stays in.

National party rules say that a candidate who "drops out" keeps any district-level delegates he or she has won so far but loses any statewide delegates he or she has won.

Romney is expected to announce his decision Thursday afternoon at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, three Republican sources told CNN.

Is John McCain the inevitable nominee? Looking ahead after Super Tuesday

If you are part of the "anybody-but-McCain" coalition, don't give up hope just yet!

The delegate count since Tuesday has been readjusted. You may have noticed that some news programs show different counts. Why is that? Some are assuming that McCain as the frontrunner will get a certain number of super delegates. The thing to remember is that the super delegates could swing the other way if McCain is not able to get a clear majority. They could either push McCain over the top or a Huckabee-Romney-Paul coalition could block his nomination by consolidating behind the second place candidate who would then be the leader.

This is how it looks as of today.

McCain - 700
Romney - 279
Huckabee - 187
Paul - 14

Total chosen - 1,180

Needed to win - 1,191

Yet to be chosen - 1,008

Simple math tell us that McCain just needs to win 491 more delegates to have the majority. But it is actually more complicated than that.

There are also a certain number of uncommitted or super delegates that are not counted here. This is why some conservative talk show hosts are pleading with Huckabee to drop out of the race and throw his support to Romney. After Tuesday, the "Anybody-but-McCain" coalition should be pleading with Romney to drop out of primaries that Huckabee has a good chance of winning.

Why would this help?

There are many states in which Romney can do no better than third that could easily go to Huckabee if he were to throw his support behind him. If we look at the upcoming southern primaries it's possible that the remaining 1,008 delegates could be split with a plurality going to Huckabee and not McCain or Romney. At that point, it would be more advantageous for the "anybody-but-McCain" coalition to plead with voters in the southern states to throw their support behind Huckabee.

To pull this off Huckabee needs to take the "winner-take-all" state of Virginia and also win in Louisiana, Kansas, Maryland, Mississipi, Nebraska, North Carolina and Kentucky.

This is more than possible. The polls were indicating on Monday that Huckabee would do no better than place second in some states and win only Arkansas, his home state. But he pulled off victories in five states and almost won Missouri. How did he do this with only a small fraction of the money of Romney and McCain?

The answer is simple.

Christian political activists organized a grassroots effort through phone and emails. Huckabee also continues to resonate with evangelical conservatives and is still drawing huge enthusiastic crowds throughout the south. He won by appealing to people who are passionate about his message. “Huck’s Army” did more effective campaigning for him than Romney and McCain could muster with millions in cold hard cash. What is really amazing is how Huckabee was able to almost run the table in the south with just one week between Florida and Super Tuesday. While I was guardedly optimistic about the results, I did not expect to see this level of Huckabee surge that came out of nowhere.

Seeing how well Huckabee did in several states bordering the upcoming southern contests, it is possible he could run the table and take Virginia, Louisiana, Kansas, Mississipi, Nebraska, North Carolina and Kentucky.

It's also possible that Romney could win Vermont, Rhode Island, Maryland, Idaho, and South Dakota.

And Ron Paul will still pull in some delegates in caucuses.

There are still a lot of voters who will think, "Anybody but McCain!"

If Huckabee and McCain win these states by decisive margins, then this is how it might look come convention time. The following is just an estimation. I am also assuming the 100 or so super delegates (already assigned to McCain by the liberal media pundits) would swing the other way.

McCain - 700 + 376 = 1,076
Huckabee - 187 + 474 = 661
Romney - 279 + 196 = 475
Paul - 14 + 20 = 34

Let's look at what happens when we combine the numbers of the three trailing candidates.

Anybody but McCain = 1,170

Yes, the "Anybody-but McCain" coalition could have 1,170 delegates between them. That's well within striking distance. Since 1,181 are needed to win, it's possible that a deal could be cut to combine a ticket with a more conservative philosophy. When the uncommitted super delegates are then counted to give sway anything could happen.

So it is possible at least mathematically for McCain to be blocked. Huckabee needs to tie or best him from here on out. A few surprises need to occur. Ron Paul and Mitt Romney need to siphon away enough votes to block McCain from having a clear majority.

Here is what’s left if you want to break it down for yourself.

State - Date - Delegate number

W: Winner take all
C: Closed primary

Louisiana - 02/09 - 47 C
Washington - 02/09 - 40
Kansas - 02/09 - 39 C
Virginia - 02/12 - 63 W
Maryland - 02/12 - 37 C
District of Columbia - 02/12 - 19 W C
Wisconsin - 02/19 - 40
Texas - 03/04 -140
Ohio - 03/04 - 88
Rhode Island - 03/04 - 20
Vermont - 03/04 - 17 W
Mississippi - 03/10 - 39
Pennsylvania - 04/22 - 74 C
North Carolina - 05/06 - 69
Indiana - 05/06 - 57
Nebraska - 05/13 - 33
Hawaii - 05/16 - 20 C
Kentucky - 05/20 - 45 C
Oregon - 05/20 - 30 C
Idaho - 05/27 - 32
New Mexico - 06/03 - 32 C
South Dakota - 06/03 - 27 C

Is John McCain the inevitable nominee? The Morning After Super Tuesday

As of the morning after Super Tuesday, this is how it stands:

Delegates needed to win - 1,191

McCain - 597
Romney - 240
Huckabee - 178
Paul - 14

Since John McCain is more than halfway to the magic number with less than half the delegates chosen, the media pundits have told us that he's a clear lock for the nomination.

But wait ...

A lot of people don't understand how this works. The Republican primary system is very different from the same process by the Democrats. There are more caucuses -- a process in which delegates are chosen by a committee. Although voting takes place in caucuses it is often possible to win without getting the most votes in the first round as Huckabee did yesterday in West Virginia. There are several "winner-take-all" states in which a simple plurality of votes, or in some cases a needed majority, yield all the delegates to one candidates. This process was set up early on to help Giuliani win in big states such as New York and California, but since Rudy is out of the race, these states went to McCain.

There are also the so-called "super delegates" which are chosen by party insiders -- these are uncommitted delgates, who are elected state officers and leading party officials. At the party convention, they can back anyone they choose. The idea is that most of these super delegates would back the candidate who is closest to striking distance. Even if he does not come to the convention with the clear majority of 1,191, he would still win the nomination by virtue of being the frontrunner.

An interesting scenario has unfolded in which McCain has won only about 40 percent of the popular vote, but has 58 percent of the delgates so far.

So here is the question ...

If the majority of the voters choose to back another candidate, such as Huckabee or Romney in the remaining primaries, then would it be possible to form a conservative coalition to block McCain?

Huckabee only narrowly lost South Carolina and Missouri to McCain. But because of the disproportional representation in delegate selection, this gave McCain a huge bump in media coverage and Huckabee lost momentum.

If Huckabee had just won Missouri last night, the scenario would be different right now. It would look like this:

McCain - 539
Romney - 240
Huckabee - 236
Paul - 14

It would also have put the combined delegate count of the three trailing candidates at 490. What if the three candidates chose to combine their effort to overcome the McCain momentum? It would put one of the candidates in a position to overtake McCain.

The loss of Missouri can be made up for in some of the southern primaries coming up later this month. It will be interesting to see whether conservative voters in the upcoming primaries back Romney or Huckabee. Will there be a conservative backlash? What if McCain does not have a clear majority of delegates by the convention? What if Huckabee finishes ahead of Romney? Could we see a scenario in which Romney and Ron Paul throw their support behind Huckabee in order to make up the difference between them collectively and McCain.

What if they proposed a ticket with Huckabee as the nominee, Romney as vice president and put Ron Paul in charge of a cabinet postion that would close the IRS?

That would unite the party and generate excitement and fervor behind a Republican ticket that a McCain/Huckabee ticket could never generate.

Is John McCain the inevitable nominee?

Last week, I wrote that John McCain cannot win the Republican nomination with an outright majority because most Republican primary voters will split between Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. Unless McCain takes every one of the "winner take all primaries" and takes lopsided wins in most of the others, that would leave him with less than the majority needed to win the nomination. After that anything can happen.

Recent polling analysis shows that most conservatives would never vote for Romney, but would support McCain. According to a poll by the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics GOP Primary:

"If John McCain and Mitt Romney were the only choices in the Republican primary, how would you vote?"

McCain -- 62
Romney -- 29
Unsure -- 6
Wouldn't Vote -- 3

Compare those numbers with the latest Rasmussen poll:

McCain -- 33
Romney -- 29
Huckabee -- 21
Paul -- 5
Unsure or other -- 12

Most of the vote that would be for Huckabee, Paul or "other" goes to McCain and not Romney!

Why? Because McCain is no more liberal than Romney. Huckabee's and Paul's base are evangelical Christians and libertarians who see Romney's record on gun control, forced health care programs, pro-abortion and the fact that he is a Mormon. McCain has voted pro-life at least 75 percent of the time and at least pays "lip service" to his Protestant faith. Hopefully, most will pay attention to the candidates' records rather than what they say on the campaign trail.

For as long as Paul and Huckabee stay in the race, McCain might still be blocked. Notice that there are no polls asking, "If John McCain and Ron Paul were the only choices ..." or, "If John McCain and Mike Huckabee were the only choices ..."

I am amazed at the arrogance of the media in reporting polling results. Essentially, they have taken the stance that Huckabee has been out of it since South Carolina after just one primary and three caucuses. The same media pundits pronounced Giuliani dead a day later. After Florida, they declared McCain the inevitable winner. While I don't agree that this is inevitable, I don't underestimate the bump this has given McCain in the polls. It's huge. It looks as though McCain has taken virtually all of Giuliani's remaining support -- about 15 percent -- and is now up to 43 percent after having been at between 18 to 28 percent for weeks. Romney's recent surge came from Fred Thompson's conservative supporters. Huckabee has been static at about 20 percent and Ron Paul at 5 percent. And unfortunately, many Republican primary voters follow the polls.

Meanwhile, Romney has successfully spun the myth that as governor of Massachusetts he was more conservative than Huckabee as governor of Arkansas. This is partially true and partially false. Huckabee cut taxes for working class people and eliminated the marriage penalty in Arkansas. Romney cut taxes on families and businesses in Massachusetts. Huckabee raised the state sales tax rate to pay for roads and education. Yet Romney appealed for billions of dollars in federal tax revenues to bail out Massachusetts during the "Big Dig" fiasco.

See: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5572480

Romney was solidly pro-abortion and advocated homosexual civil unions, favored gun control and favored making health care mandatory in Massachusetts, while McCain had about an 80 percent conservative voting record rating by Democrat and Republican watchdog groups alike. McCain and Romney got into a big hissy fight over who is more conservative in last week's California debate, while Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee looked on disgusted at the media's hypocrisy in portraying the election as a "two man race." Of course, the media is going to prefer the two most liberal candidates!

The most arrogant of the media are conservative talk show hosts such as Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh who think that Romney is much more conservative than McCain. Last week, I heard Hannity say that that Huckabee was only in the race to throw the election to McCain because they had secretly "cut a deal" to make Huckabee the running mate. That may be. But it also assumes that most Huckabee supporters would vote for Romney and not Ron Paul or McCain.

Why do Limbaugh and Hannity endorse Romney over McCain instead of Ron Paul or Mike Huckabee? The answer is simple. These men are not classical conservatives. They are not Christian conservatives. They are Neo-Cons -- men who have interpreted the liberalism of 20 years ago as the conservatism of today.

Today, Sean Hannity admires John F. Kennedy. Twenty years from now, will we find future Neo-Cons endorsing the policies of Bill Clinton? Neo-Cons have wreaked havoc on issues ranging from fiscal responsibility to abortion. For instance, Hannity, a Roman Catholic, says he is pro-life except for the cases of rape, incest, and danger to the health and life of the mother in the first trimester of pregnancy. Yet he pays lip service to wanting to overturn Roe v. Wade.

Yet what does the Roe decision say? It says that a woman should have the right to an abortion in the cases of rape, incest, and danger to the health and life of the mother in the first trimester of pregnancy. Of course, these "exceptions" make up less than three percent of all abortions. Companion court cases such as Doe v. Bolton expanded the "right to abortion" to include any abortion that is deemed necessary by a licensed physician. Doe v. Bolton made the decision a "private matter between a woman and her doctor." So even an overturn of Roe would not stop abortion in any state that did not have laws in place that countered the "right to privacy" myth. We don't enforce the "right to privacy" in cases of drug abuse or suicide, yet we use it as an excuse for killing unborn baby boys and girls.

What we need is a Sanctity of Human Life Amendment to the Constitution. Mike Huckabee is the only candidate in the running who advocates this. Pro-life voters should know this. Ron Paul and Alan Keyes are the only other candidates still on the ballots in most states who have uncompromising pro-life credentials. If enough pro-life Republicans vote their conscience and support one of these candidates, enough delegates will be amassed between them to keep the nomination from Romney or McCain.

If you are pro-life, make your choice wisely.