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Is John McCain the inevitable nominee? (forming the ABC coalition)

If you are part of the “anybody-but-McCain” coalition, don’t give up hope just yet!

The delegate count since Tuesday has been readjusted. You may have noticed that some news programs show different counts. Why is that? Some are assuming that McCain as the frontrunner will get a certain number of super delegates. The thing to remember is that the super delegates could swing the other way if McCain is not able to get a clear majority. They could either push McCain over the top or a Huckabee-Romney-Paul coalition could block his nomination by consolidating behind the second place candidate who would then be the leader.

This is how it looks as of today.

McCain – 700
Romney – 279
Huckabee – 187
Paul – 14

Total chosen – 1,180

Needed to win – 1,191

Yet to be chosen – 1,008


Simple math tell us that McCain just needs to win 491 more delegates to have the majority. But it is actually more complicated than that.

There are also a certain number of uncommitted or super delegates that are not counted here. This is why some conservative talk show hosts are pleading with Huckabee to drop out of the race and throw his support to Romney. After Tuesday, the “Anybody-but-McCain” coalition should be pleading with Romney to drop out of primaries that Huckabee has a good chance of winning.

Why would this help?

There are many states in which Romney can do no better than third that could easily go to Huckabee if he were to throw his support behind him. If we look at the upcoming southern primaries it’s possible that the remaining 1,008 delegates could be split with a plurality going to Huckabee and not McCain or Romney. At that point, it would be more advantageous for the “anybody-but-McCain” coalition to plead with voters in the southern states to throw their support behind Huckabee.

To pull this off Huckabee needs to take the “winner-take-all” state of Virginia and also win in Louisiana, Kansas, Maryland, Mississipi, Nebraska, North Carolina and Kentucky.

This is more than possible. The polls were indicating on Monday that Huckabee would do no better than place second in some states and win only Arkansas, his home state. But he pulled off victories in five states and almost won Missouri. How did he do this with only a small fraction of the money of Romney and McCain?

The answer is simple.

Christian political activists organized a grassroots effort through phone and emails. Huckabee also continues to resonate with evangelical conservatives and is still drawing huge enthusiastic crowds throughout the south. He won by appealing to people who are passionate about his message. “Huck’s Army” did more effective campaigning for him than Romney and McCain could muster with millions in cold hard cash. What is really amazing is how Huckabee was able to almost run the table in the south with just one week between Florida and Super Tuesday. While I was guardedly optimistic about the results, I did not expect to see this level of Huckabee surge that came out of nowhere.

Seeing how well Huckabee did in several states bordering the upcoming southern contests, it is possible he could run the table and take Virginia, Louisiana, Kansas, Mississipi, Nebraska, North Carolina and Kentucky.

It’s also possible that Romney could win Vermont, Rhode Island, Maryland, Idaho, and South Dakota.

And Ron Paul will still pull in some delegates in caucuses.

There are still a lot of voters who will think, “Anybody but McCain!”

If Huckabee and McCain win these states by decisive margins, then this is how it might look come convention time. The following is just an estimation. I am also assuming the 100 or so super delegates (already assigned to McCain by the liberal media pundits) would swing the other way.

McCain – 700 + 376 = 1,076
Huckabee – 187 + 474 = 661
Romney – 279 + 196 = 475
Paul – 14 + 20 = 34


Let’s look at what happens when we combine the numbers of the three trailing candidates.

Anybody but McCain = 1,170

Yes, the “Anybody-but McCain” coalition could have 1,170 delegates between them. That’s well within striking distance. Since 1,181 are needed to win, it’s possible that a deal could be cut to combine a ticket with a more conservative philosophy. When the uncommitted super delegates are then counted to give sway anything could happen.

So it is possible at least mathematically for McCain to be blocked. Huckabee needs to tie or best him from here on out. A few surprises need to occur. Ron Paul and Mitt Romney need to siphon away enough votes to block McCain from having a clear majority.

Here is what’s left if you want to break it down for yourself.

State – Date – Delegate number

W: Winner take all
C: Closed primary


Louisiana – 02/09 – 47 C
Washington – 02/09 – 40
Kansas – 02/09 – 39 C
Virginia – 02/12 – 63 W
Maryland – 02/12 – 37 C
District of Columbia – 02/12 – 19 W C
Wisconsin – 02/19 – 40
Texas – 03/04 -140
Ohio – 03/04 – 88
Rhode Island – 03/04 – 20
Vermont – 03/04 – 17 W
Mississippi – 03/10 – 39
Pennsylvania – 04/22 – 74 C
North Carolina – 05/06 – 69
Indiana – 05/06 – 57
Nebraska – 05/13 – 33
Hawaii – 05/16 – 20 C
Kentucky – 05/20 – 45 C
Oregon – 05/20 – 30 C
Idaho – 05/27 – 32
New Mexico – 06/03 – 32 C
South Dakota – 06/03 – 27 C

Comments

Your comments are welcome!

As a definite member of the "anyone but McCain" coalition, I really hope that the conservative movement can get its act together. McCain is hot-headed and untrustworthy;he has flip-flopped on too many issues to count. Here's a link to a great video that points this out rather well.

http://campaigncircus.com/video_player.php?v=7536

Posted by Kimberly on 07/02/2008 12:54 PM #

I'm an "Anyone but McCain" Republican, but we've got no choice but to support him now, because not doing so and allowing Billary or Obama to win would be a complete disaster for the country.

Posted by McCain for President, or We're Really Screwed on 07/02/2008 02:41 PM #

I guess I'll be the tie breaker between an 'Anyone but 'Cain' and a 'Let's just vote for McCain' person for round one, and I've got to say, After years of George W. Bush's surprise socialism, we need more conservative in the White House, not less. & I would never EVER want a larger government conservative of any ilk. Come on, people, let's get our act together, stop with the minimizing of our beliefs and soul, and go with your plan. It's really good, and it needs to be e-mailed everywhere.
Oh, and can people stop endorsing John McCain? Nobody liked him when he was a nobody, he wins a couple of states, and all of the sudden there's a bread line?!? WTF?!?!?

Posted by  ABC: Anyone But 'Cain on 09/02/2008 12:41 AM #

It seems like everyday we're forced to settle. Well, I'm tired of settling; I believe McCain is a traitor to his own party, and I refuse to vote for a man who believes in nothing aside from trying to rule the world. It's time to rally around a man who is set on his beliefs. I still believe God has an influence in this world, and I refuse to give in to a man who has continually been a liberal and a traitor. In a world where morals count for nothing, I want to stand up and proclaim that I still believe in miracles. I still believe in Mike Huckabee, but I can't change the mind of an entire nation alone. I need you to not give in and to keep fighting for a man who fights for God. Fight for Mike Huckabee and don't stop believing in miracles.

Posted by Sward562 on 11/02/2008 09:11 PM #

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