If you are part of the “anybody-but-McCain” coalition, don’t give up hope just yet!
The delegate count since Tuesday has been readjusted. You may have noticed that some news programs show different counts. Why is that? Some are assuming that McCain as the frontrunner will get a certain number of super delegates. The thing to remember is that the super delegates could swing the other way if McCain is not able to get a clear majority. They could either push McCain over the top or a Huckabee-Romney-Paul coalition could block his nomination by consolidating behind the second place candidate who would then be the leader.
This is how it looks as of today.
McCain – 700
Romney – 279
Huckabee – 187
Paul – 14
Total chosen – 1,180
Needed to win – 1,191
Yet to be chosen – 1,008
Simple math tell us that McCain just needs to win 491 more delegates to have the majority. But it is actually more complicated than that.
There are also a certain number of uncommitted or super delegates that are not counted here. This is why some conservative talk show hosts are pleading with Huckabee to drop out of the race and throw his support to Romney. After Tuesday, the “Anybody-but-McCain” coalition should be pleading with Romney to drop out of primaries that Huckabee has a good chance of winning.
Why would this help?
There are many states in which Romney can do no better than third that could easily go to Huckabee if he were to throw his support behind him. If we look at the upcoming southern primaries it’s possible that the remaining 1,008 delegates could be split with a plurality going to Huckabee and not McCain or Romney. At that point, it would be more advantageous for the “anybody-but-McCain” coalition to plead with voters in the southern states to throw their support behind Huckabee.
To pull this off Huckabee needs to take the “winner-take-all” state of Virginia and also win in Louisiana, Kansas, Maryland, Mississipi, Nebraska, North Carolina and Kentucky.
This is more than possible. The polls were indicating on Monday that Huckabee would do no better than place second in some states and win only Arkansas, his home state. But he pulled off victories in five states and almost won Missouri. How did he do this with only a small fraction of the money of Romney and McCain?
The answer is simple.
Christian political activists organized a grassroots effort through phone and emails. Huckabee also continues to resonate with evangelical conservatives and is still drawing huge enthusiastic crowds throughout the south. He won by appealing to people who are passionate about his message. “Huck’s Army” did more effective campaigning for him than Romney and McCain could muster with millions in cold hard cash. What is really amazing is how Huckabee was able to almost run the table in the south with just one week between Florida and Super Tuesday. While I was guardedly optimistic about the results, I did not expect to see this level of Huckabee surge that came out of nowhere.
Seeing how well Huckabee did in several states bordering the upcoming southern contests, it is possible he could run the table and take Virginia, Louisiana, Kansas, Mississipi, Nebraska, North Carolina and Kentucky.
It’s also possible that Romney could win Vermont, Rhode Island, Maryland, Idaho, and South Dakota.
And Ron Paul will still pull in some delegates in caucuses.
There are still a lot of voters who will think, “Anybody but McCain!”
If Huckabee and McCain win these states by decisive margins, then this is how it might look come convention time. The following is just an estimation. I am also assuming the 100 or so super delegates (already assigned to McCain by the liberal media pundits) would swing the other way.
McCain – 700 + 376 = 1,076
Huckabee – 187 + 474 = 661
Romney – 279 + 196 = 475
Paul – 14 + 20 = 34
Let’s look at what happens when we combine the numbers of the three trailing candidates.
Anybody but McCain = 1,170
Yes, the “Anybody-but McCain” coalition could have 1,170 delegates between them. That’s well within striking distance. Since 1,181 are needed to win, it’s possible that a deal could be cut to combine a ticket with a more conservative philosophy. When the uncommitted super delegates are then counted to give sway anything could happen.
So it is possible at least mathematically for McCain to be blocked. Huckabee needs to tie or best him from here on out. A few surprises need to occur. Ron Paul and Mitt Romney need to siphon away enough votes to block McCain from having a clear majority.
Here is what’s left if you want to break it down for yourself.
State – Date – Delegate number
W: Winner take all
C: Closed primary
Louisiana – 02/09 – 47 C
Washington – 02/09 – 40
Kansas – 02/09 – 39 C
Virginia – 02/12 – 63 W
Maryland – 02/12 – 37 C
District of Columbia – 02/12 – 19 W C
Wisconsin – 02/19 – 40
Texas – 03/04 -140
Ohio – 03/04 – 88
Rhode Island – 03/04 – 20
Vermont – 03/04 – 17 W
Mississippi – 03/10 – 39
Pennsylvania – 04/22 – 74 C
North Carolina – 05/06 – 69
Indiana – 05/06 – 57
Nebraska – 05/13 – 33
Hawaii – 05/16 – 20 C
Kentucky – 05/20 – 45 C
Oregon – 05/20 – 30 C
Idaho – 05/27 – 32
New Mexico – 06/03 – 32 C
South Dakota – 06/03 – 27 C
«- Is John McCain the inevitable nominee? (the morning after)
- Current Events and Issues
-» Romney quits! It's now a two man race!
Your comments are welcome!
“Give me liberty or give me death!”
Patrick Henry’s famous declaration not only helped launch the War for Independence, it also perfectly summarized the mindset that gave birth to, and sustained, the unprecedented experiment in Christian liberty that was America.
The freedom our Founders envisioned was not freedom from suffering, want, or hard work. Nor was it freedom to indulge every appetite or whim without restraint—that would merely be servitude to a different master. No, the Founders’ passion was to live free before God, unfettered by the chains of autocracy, shackles that slowly but inexorably bind men when the governments they fashion fail to recognize and uphold freedom’s singular, foundational truth: that all men are created in the image of God, and are thereby co-equally endowed with the right to “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.”
This presentation is a similar call, not to one but many. By reintroducing the principles of freedom that gave birth to America, it is our prayer that Jesus, the true and only ruler over the nations, will once again be our acknowledged Sovereign, that we may again know and exult in the great truth that “where the Spirit of the LORD is, there is liberty” (2 Cor. 3:17).
Welcome to the Second American Revolution!
This DVD features “Liberty: The Model of Christian Liberty” along with “Dawn’s Early Light: A Brief History of America’s Christian Foundations.” Bonus features include a humorous but instructive collection of campaign ads and Eric Holmberg’s controversial YouTube challenge concerning Mitt Romney’s campaign for president.
$14.95 — ORDER NOW!(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)
“When the lives of the unborn are snuffed out, they often feel pain, pain that is long and agonizing.” – President Ronald Reagan to National Religious Broadcasters Convention, January 1981
Ronald Reagan became convinced of this as a result of watching The Silent Scream – a movie he considered so powerful and convicting that he screened it at the White House.
The modern technology of real-time ultrasound now reveals the actual responses of a 12-week old fetus to being aborted. As the unborn child attempts to escape the abortionist’s suction curette, her motions can be seen to become desperately agitated and her heart rate doubles. Her mouth opens – as if to scream – but no sound can come out. Her scream doesn’t have to remain silent, however … not if you will become her voice. This newly re-mastered version features eight language tracks and two bonus videos.
“…a high technology “Uncle Tom’s Cabin” arousing public opinion just as Harriet Beecher Stowe’s 1852 antislavery novel ignited the abolitionist movement.” – Sen. Gordon Humphrey, Time Magazine
Languages: English, Spanish, French, South Korean, Chinese, Russian, Portuguese, Japanese
Running Time: 28 minutes
$17.95 — ORDER NOW!(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)
Special Two-Disc Set!
After 40 years of intense study and world-wide ministry, Dr. Francis Schaeffer completed his crowning work of scholarship – to present profound truths in simple film language. Dr. Schaeffer’s brilliant analysis of the past and predictions for current trends have proven so uncannily accurate that this amazing series still feels contemporary almost three decades after its initial release. Ultimately, Schaeffer concludes that man’s only hope is a return to God’s Biblical absolute, the truth revealed in Christ through the Scriptures.
Available for the first time on DVD, this documentary spectacular also includes intimate in-depth conversations with Francis and Edith Schaeffer. With the on-disc study guide, this presentation forms a unique course of comprehensive study. While this series forms an innovative analysis of the past, this outstanding work is more than history. Each episode focuses on a significant era, yet speaks clearly to 21st-century man with answers for modern problems.
$49.95 — ORDER NOW!(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)
Download the Free Study Guide!
Just what is Calvinism?
Does this teaching make man a deterministic robot and God the author of sin? What about free will? If the church accepts Calvinism, won’t evangelism be stifled, perhaps even extinguished? How can we balance God’s sovereignty and man’s responsibility? What are the differences between historic Calvinism and hyper-Calvinism? Why did men like Augustine, Luther, Calvin, Spurgeon, Whitefield, Edwards and a host of renowned Protestant evangelists embrace the teaching of predestination and election and deny free will theology?
This is the first video documentary that answers these and other related questions. Hosted by Eric Holmberg, this fascinating three-part, four-hour presentation is detailed enough so as to not gloss over the controversy. At the same time, it is broken up into ten “Sunday-school-sized” sections to make the rich content manageable and accessible for the average viewer.
Running Time: 257 minutes
$19.95 — ORDER NOW!(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)
Exposing The Occult Roots of Abortion
This presentation looks at the spiritual roots of abortion and exposes the myths surrounding child killing. Little known historical facts about abortion and how they relate to modern feminism are presented logically and accurately. Has been effective in converting many to a pro-life position.
Massacre of Innocence goes where no pro-life presentation has gone before in “tearing the lid off abortion” to reveal the spiritual realities we must battle if we will bring an end to this crime. The presentation is absorbing, fast-paced, informative and incredibly devastating to any attempt to justify abortion.
“… an extraordinary statement … a powerfully articulate presentation about what abortion really means, and why a great and moral nation like the United States must not allow the slaughter to continue.”
— Congressman Robert K. Dornan
Running time: 85 minutes
$19.95 — ORDER NOW!(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)