I don’t know if this is factual or if it is media spin, but the most current explanation of Putin’s plan to end the war is that he wants Ukraine to withdraw from the Donetsk oblast only in order to begin a ceasefire that would start negotiations to end the war. This doesn’t mean that the Kherson and Zaporozhye oblasts are not Russia according to the Russian Constitution. They certainly are. It just means for now that the Ukrainians have to stop fighting along the line of contact in Donetsk and withdraw. There are several things that could happen from there.

For this article, see the current line of contact in Ukraine, from a pro-Ukrainian military mapping site.

DeepStateMAP | День 1272 | Map of the war in Ukraine

As of the publication of this article, the Ukrainian front lines are collapsing and several of the long defended cities in the Donetsk oblast look more vulnerable now. According to this rationale, Russia currently occupies all of Lugansk, most of Donetsk, and the parts of Kherson and Zaporozhye that are south of the southeastern bend in the Dnieper River.

1. *Russia could demand in negotiations that the remaining territories of Kherson and Zaporozhye (the parts north of the southern bend of the Dnieper River that the Russians do not occupy) be transferred to the Russian Federation. And then if the Ukrainians did not agree to that, they would pick up fighting from a much greater position of strength because all of Donetsk’s fortifications would be abandoned. This is what the Ukrainians fear, and I doubt they would make such an agreement without assurances that these other territories remain part of Ukraine.
2. Russia could demand that Ukraine’s constitution be changed to federalize the regions and also give them the right to vote in a referendum whether or not they can leave Ukraine. If that occurred, it would go a long way in convincing the international community that the previous referendums Russia conducted in Crimea and the four “New Russia” oblasts had some legitimacy as far as reflecting the will of the people. Of course, that would open up a can of worms. There are Hungarians in the West that might like to leave Ukraine as well for similar reasons as the Russians. So the Kyiv regime probably wants to keep tight control over the non-Ukrainian ethnic groups.
3. Russia might cede these territories to Ukraine, even though according to their law there are part of Russia, because the people in Zaporozhye City never voted. And although there are many pro-Russian people there, they are not as numerous as in the Donbas regions. The people in Kherson City did vote because at that time there were occupied by Russia, but see # 4.
4. The people in Kherson City did vote to join Russia, but the city is fairly small and is not vital to Russian security. The current population of Kherson City is estimated to be only around 66,000 people. This figure represents a significant decrease from the pre-war population of approximately 300,000. Russian officials might figure that the pro-Russian side has already emigrated into Russian territory, while the pro-Ukrainian side has left the city for other Ukrainian territories.
5. The Dnieper River provides a nice natural barrier between Russia and Ukraine. It is miles across and difficult to mount an invasion there. This arrangement would also give Ukraine access to important ports at the mouth of the Dnieper River that are vital for its trade economy. Ukraine and Russia would have to work out a cooperative deal in which each would stay on their side of the boundary. But both would benefit from having access to the mouth of the river.

This last point might seal the deal for Ukraine. If they refuse, Russia might reinvade the northern part of those regions. There is always the danger of losing not only just Kherson and Zaporozhye, but also parts of Myolaev and all of the Odessa oblast, which is attractive to Russia because it would connect the Russian Federation with Transnistria on the Moldovan border. Further, it would make Ukraine a landlocked country with no sea ports. If Ukraine refused point #5, in time Russia could extend its occupation all the way to the “left bank” of Dnieper River in the Zaporozhye and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. They could also lose more territories in Kharkov and Sumy — even to the point of threatening Chernigov and Kiev, from which Russia withdrew in the spring of 2022 as part of the Istanbul negotiations, which soon thereafter fell apart.

If I were Trump, this is exactly the argument I would use with Putin and Zelenskyy. Russia would agree in a treaty to not claim the Kherson and Zaporozhye territories to the north of the Dnieper River bend. Although according to their Constitution, these territories up to the administrative lines belong to Russia, lines can be redefined according to Russian law. It is also a convincing argument to the Ukrainians and their next elected president and parliament that something was gained by ending the war. Then it looks like Ukraine is still viable as a sovereign nation, especially if they’re able to end their political corruption and reform their economy.

Ukraine would also receive back the small parts of Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkov and Sumy regions that Russia currently occupies. It’s not an even “land swap” for Donetsk, but it enables Ukraine to not risk losing even more territory. This is a real danger for Ukraine in all the regions where front-lines are currently collapsing.

The appeal for Russia, is that it crushes the argument that Putin just wants to grab land. The concern for Russia in Donetsk is that there are still four fairly large cities that are populated with people that Russia has not taken yet, but is fairly close to. These are Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka, and the city of Pokrovsk, which is currently caught in the middle of an operational encirclement. The people in these cities who have stayed are mainly pro-Russians, and the Russian army does not want to kill a lot of civilians in these areas through shelling.

On the Russian side, there are many Russian nationalists who think that all of Ukraine ought to go to Russia. But in reality, Putin does not want the Russian Federation to rule over Ukrainians who hate them. That would cause unending conflict. They want the areas that are historically Russian, have a large number of ethnic Russian speakers, and are culturally pro-Russian.

Even more so, Russia wants security. The war was never about land, but about securing non-NATO neutrality and to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine. (“De-Nazification” essentially means to purge Ukraine’s national government and its military from ultra-nationalists who are aggressively anti-Russian.) After the great difficulty to defeat Russia in Ukraine and huge loss of lives, it’s doubtful that NATO would try this military strategy again. These items were always Russia’s main concerns. A well-negotiated treaty would put to rest the notion in writing that Russia has “imperial ambitions” to absorb other nations in Europe and Asia. A peace treaty must deal with the following Russian concerns.

1. NATO, non-military block neutrality of Ukraine is a non-negotiable for Russia. It was under this condition that Russia participated in the signing of the Budapest Memorandum for former Soviet bloc countries in 1994. The Ukrainian Constitution initially included a provision for non-aligned and neutral status. Specifically, the 1996 Constitution, based on the 1991 Declaration of Independence, outlined the principles of non-alignment and future neutrality. However, this provision was later removed from the Constitution. It is also a non-starter to pretend it is acceptable to place NATO troops in Ukraine under a different flag as “peace keepers” — as it is to give “Article 5-like“protections when Ukraine is not part of NATO. Such proposals are nonsensical. An international group of peacekeepers neutral toward either Ukraine or Russia makes more sense.
2. Demilitarization was the sticking point in the Istanbul 2022 negotiations. The size of Ukraine’s active military is going to be a problem to resolve. Both sides will have to compromise on what is and acceptable number.
3. De-Nazificaton is an issue impratant to Russians, but is literally laughed at by those in the West who counter that Zelenskyy is a Jew and so on. However, if it is propaganda, then it should not be difficult to pass laws allowing freedom of speech/language, religion, political parties, a degree of federalization/decentralizaton of the oblasts — for all ethnic Russians and pro-Russians. Ultra-nationalism need to be curbed by law from discriminating against Ukraine’s ethnic minorities.
4. The EU/NATO countries, the US and the world to renegotiate a security infrastructure for Europe as well as an new international nuclear arms limitation treaty. This item is in the best interests of everyone. A treaty dealing with Europe could also be a springboard for a new treaty limiting all the nuclear powers of the world — including China, India, Pakistan, Israel, North Korea — and agreements concerning nuclear programs, such in as Iran.