Dr. Brovkin is a former Harvard professor and one of the world’s leading experts on Soviet and Russian Federation politics. This is a brilliant and correct analysis of the current corruption scandal in Ukraine and whether it is likely to end Zelenskyy’s presidency. Make no mistake about it. Although ignored by the media and covered up by Western politicians who are beneficiaries of the money skimming and laundering, this corruption has long been known, but it is being exposed now for the Western purpose of eventual regime change in Kyiv. Brovkin examines who are the likely players.

See The Forerunner’s previous articles on the inevitable collapse of Ukraine and regime change in Kyiv.

1. Trump’s Sensational “Reversal of Course” on the War in Ukraine policy
2. Is Zelenskyy really a “dictator without elections”?
3. Ukraine’s Coming Neo-Nazi Coup and Civil War

By Vladimir Brovkin

Welcome to Issues of Contemporary Politics with Dr. Brovkin. Today, my dear subscribers, I would like to speak about President Zelenskyy and his chances of survival. The title of today’s presentation is: Can Zelenskyy Survive the Current Corruption Scandal?

The world media is full of reports—which I have studied extensively—from European, American, Russian, and Ukrainian sources about the newest corruption scandal unfolding before our very eyes. The scandal escalated with arrests made on the 10th, 11th, and 12th of November in Kyiv.

The key figure in these arrests is Timur Mindich, who fled a few hours before being arrested using an Israeli passport. Who is Mr. Mindich? He is a friend of President Zelenskyy. He is the co-owner of the Kvartal 95 agency, where Zelenskyy started his career as a comedian, humorist, and satirist before being propelled to the presidency. Mindich is his best friend and has the nickname “Zelenskyy’s wallet.”

I will focus today on three basic questions:

1. What is the substance of the allegations and their source?
2. Who is behind it? Why now? Who is trying to draw political capital from this affair?
3. What are the implications? What is likely to happen as a result of this unfolding drama?

I will start with the facts, as revealed in various sources. One of the most interesting and complete sources is the website Strana Today, an opposition Ukrainian source that publishes regularly on Ukrainian politics. Quite a lot was also published in Russian sources, which detailed what had been published in Ukraine. In Ukraine itself, very little is available because the press is controlled.

The substance of the allegations can only be read, if at all, by accessing the websites of the Prosecutor General and the NABU—the National Anti-Corruption Bureau. Most of the revelations come from that source.

This story has a long beginning. You may recall that in the summer, there were the so-called “cartoon protests,” encouraged by former President Poroshenko, in protest against Zelenskyy’s attack on NABU. It was evident at that time that Zelenskyy was eager to crush the anti-corruption agency and subordinate it to himself. Those who didn’t obey were accused of being Russian agents. Some people were arrested, and NABU was pretty much shut down.

But then there was a counter-movement, initiated by former President Poroshenko, who found a lot of support in the West. It is very important to distinguish between the United States—the FBI and President Trump and his interests in Ukrainian politics—and the Europeans on the other. As I will argue later, the political interests of the Europeans and the Americans diverge significantly, and that may have political repercussions.

So, what about the substance of the allegations?

The co-owner of the Kvartal 95 agency, Mr. Mindich, is known to have participated in a number of shadowy operations, which were documented by NABU. They are now publishing this information in bits and pieces daily, and some revelations are quite extraordinary. I will focus on five of them to be brief.

Number one: The War-Energy Link.
This scandal is connected with Energoatom,the Ukrainian agency that controls nuclear power stations. NABU was spying on Mindich and his associates for some time. They recently published a recorded conversation from October 2024 about the construction of a protective shield over the Khmelnytskyi nuclear power station. The conversation clearly shows they were discussing how to skim money from the budget allocated for that protective shield so it could be stolen or diverted.

Number two: Offshore Money Laundering.
This is a favorite topic of the FBI. The Americans are investigating, and we have found out something extraordinary: Mindich, and presumably his boss Zelenskyy, have a number of offshore companies in the British Virgin Islands—a UK-registered firm. The transactions were handled by a man nicknamed “Sugarman,” who disappeared and fled two days ago together with Mindich. This is the money laundering of stolen money through entities in the British Virgin Islands.

Number three: The 10 to 15% Kickbacks Scheme.
This scheme involved all military contracts in Ukraine having to go through“doorkeepers”—Mindich and the Kvartal 95 company, which had nothing to do with war procurement before the war. They were demanding a 10 to 15% cut from every tender and military contract. Wiretaps have it all on tape, and the money was then diverted to offshore accounts.

To put it in drastic terms, Zelenskyy, through Mindich, was stealing from the money coming from the West. This is why the FBI is involved. They were channeling it for their personal use. The official definition of corruption is the use of public office for personal gain. That’s exactly what they were doing: abusing the state budget and foreign aid to line their own pockets. Now it has all come out.

Number four: Defense Sector Ties.
This also involves kickbacks from military contracts,specifically from a company called Firepoint, which produces drones and Flamingo missiles. NABU accuses these individuals of “no-bid contracts,” meaning contracts were awarded to favored companies. A thousand hours of wiretaps from the “Mindich tapes” show extensive details of these operations, involving hundreds of millions of dollars—in one document, specifically $262 million in drone jamming equipment and arms.

These are the kinds of activities Mindich and his associates were involved in, and this also implicates ministers in the current government—two of whom have resigned—as well as many higher-ups in the Ukrainian administration.

There are many other details, such as buying luxury real estate in London by Zelenskyy and his wife, but I have no time to go through all of this.

The facts are clear. These are not a matter of interpretation. Zelenskyy’s closest associates, whom he has known for years and with whom he launched his businesses and political career, are involved in graft, money laundering, and outright theft and corruption from the Ukrainian people, the Ukrainian government, and the Americans as the biggest donors. That is the fact.

Now, let me go to the interpretations. Who is behind it?

The obvious Ukrainian actor is Mr. Poroshenko, the former president, who now officially proposes to remove Zelenskyy from power and to create a government of national unity that would be ready to lead the country—and then, we don’t know what.

Now, it seems to me there are two camps, and I come back to the topic of the divergence between the Americans and the Europeans.

It seems to me—I may be wrong—that Petro Poroshenko and his men are more focused on Trump and the Americans. They may be ready to blame Zelensky for all the misfortunes: the defeats at the front, the theft and corruption, and everything else. They would hang everything on him, and then perhaps sign a peace deal with the Russians under the assumption that they would have continued American support. They would lose some territory, but keep the bulk of Ukraine and could continue to rule over it with American support. That seems to be what’s in the making.

Now, the second group, it seems to me, is Mr. Zaluzhny, and his patrons are the Europeans, specifically the British. It seems to me that these people, if there is a change of government, are much more interested in continuing the war. They would also blame everything on Zelensky, but their purpose would be to continue the war until victory, so that the Europeans could use Ukraine to fight Russia and inflict as much damage as possible, which was their original perspective and goal.

These are the two major groups supported within the elites of Ukraine, backed by the Americans and the Europeans respectively. But it seems to me that there could be a third alternative, and that’s the one that nobody expects at this point. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but it could.

The third alternative is that the people of Ukraine—as shown by a variety of sociological studies—are tired of the war. Everybody in Ukraine wants peace now. This is seen in the facts that 25% of the army is deserting, that there are continuous defeats at the front, and that there is resistance to the draft, especially to the notorious units that grab young men on the streets, beat them up, and throw them into the buses—a practice they call “busification.”

So it seems like Ukrainian society may explode. A third alternative may indeed arise from those who would say: it’s not just Zelensky, it’s Zelensky and his Western sponsors. This could then take on a pro-Russian direction in the form of a popular revolution against the current regime, demanding peace and an honest agreement or treaty with the Russians.

We shall see which of the three scenarios will take place. But it seems to me that these are extraordinarily important historical events we are witnessing, and we shall see how they play out. It may well be that the days of Zelensky in power are numbered.

Thank you very much for your comments. I enjoy reading them and answering them. I’ll remind you to like this video if you enjoyed it, and to subscribe to my channel if you are new. I also invite you to read my book, From Vladimir Lenin to Vladimir Putin: Russia in Search of its Identity. The details are in the description below.

I will see you soon with the next edition of Issues of Contemporary Politics with Dr. Brovkin.