The most important primary for Mike Huckabee this week is Virginia, which is winner take all — 63 delegates. It’s almost a “must win” for Huckabee. It would be a huge win and give him great momentum. It’s not over if he loses, but to keep his momentum going forward, he has to take all the Virginia delegates or do surprisingly well in both Virginia and Maryland.
Here is what the Mason Dixon poll showed for last Thursday and Friday.
McCain – 55%
Huckabee – 27%
Paul – 5%
If you are like me, you are saying, “Huh? Where are those missing 13 percent?”
These are the Romney supporters and the undecided voters. Conventional wisdom says that at least half of these go to Huckabee, a few to McCain and the rest stay home. So let’s say that 7 percent of these go to Huckabee.
We also have to take into consideration that Saturday’s results are going to energize the ABC (Anybody But ‘Cain) base. Huckabee will get another “bump” from this. That gives him 5 more points easily. We also have to look at the low voter turn-out that led to Huckabee’s victories in Louisiana and Kansas. If few of McCain’s supporters turn out, it could skew the percentage vote toward Huckabee and Ron Paul, whose supporters are far more passionate and committed.
It could end up looking like this:
Huckabee – 44%
McCain – 43%
Paul – 8 %
Other – 5%
In an earlier post, I outlined how Mike Huckabee could win in 11 primary states and effectively block McCain from the nomination. I wrote that those states would most likely be: Louisiana, Kansas, Virginia, Maryland, Texas, Nebraska, Mississipi, North Carolina, Kentucky, Idaho, and South Dakota.
Now with Huckabee’s blow out win in Kansas, a narrow win in Louisiana (a state he did not campaign in) and a surprising showing in Washington, I’ve become a little more optimistic that this could play out.
Below are my predictions for how the rest of the primaries could go if the current trend continues.
Red states are likely to go to Huckabee.
Blues states are likely to go to McCain.
Purple states could go either way.
STATE—————- DATE —————- DELEGATES
Virginia ————02/12—————- 63 W
Maryland————-02/12—————- 37 C
Puerto Rico———02/24 ————— 23
Ohio ——————03/04 ————— 88
Rhode Island——-03/04—————- 20
Vermont—————03/04—————- 17 W
Pennsylvania——-03/22—————- 74 C
North Carolina—-05/06—————- 69
Hawaii—————-05/16—————- 20 C
Kentucky————-05/20—————- 45 C
Oregon—————-05/20—————- 30 C
New Mexico ———05/03—————- 32 C
South Dakota——-06/03—————- 27 C
W: Winner take all
C: Closed primary
Huckabee doesn’t have to win the nomination, but just block McCain and become the second candidate in a brokered convention. He can do this by winning most of the red states and get a few “surprise” victories in purple states.
At that point, he would choose Romney as a running mate and count on several hundred uncommitted delegates to push him over the top.