Obama peaks early in polls

Here’s something interesting. As you read this blurb from PoliticalWire.com remember that this is from March 2, 2008:

Clinton Internal Polls Show Close Race

“Privately, Clinton campaign advisors say their own internal polls show the race tightening in Ohio and remaining very close in Texas,” according to ABC News. “In their best case scenario, Clinton aides hope she could win Ohio by 3 to 6 points and squeak out a victory in Texas. They would consider that a good night and reason to fight on to Pennsylvania, which holds its primary on April 22. Other scenarios, they admit, are not so pretty.”

Here were the final RCP poll averages:

Ohio
Clinton: 50.1
Obama: 43
Spread: Clinton +7.1

Texas
Clinton: 47.4
Obama: 45.7
Spread: Clinton +1.7

Here were the actual results:

Ohio
Clinton: 54.2
Obama: 44.1
Spread: Clinton +12.1

Texas
Clinton: 50.9
Obama: 47.4
Spread: Clinton +3.5

In Pennsylvania too the results for Clinton were higher than expected.

PA Polls
Clinton 49.5
Obama 43.4
Spread: Clinton +6.1

PA results
Clinton 54.6
Obama 45.4
Spread: Clinton +9.2

If you look at the polling data just a few days before, you’ll see a surge by Obama and then a drop off. Is it likely that the polls could shift 3 or 4 points in key battleground states between November 3rd and 4th?

My prediction is that if the national polls average 4 points or less in Obama’s favor the day before the election, McCain wins.

Your comments are welcome

Use Textile help to style your comments

Suggested products

DVD

Freedom

The Model of Christian Liberty. This DVD includes “Dawn’s Early Light: A Brief History of America’s Christian Foundations” and bonus features.

Read more