Looking at the polls alone, most media pundits have already decided to call the 2008 presidential election for Barack Obama. There is no need to let the voters decide when we have the fourth branch of government at MSNBC, CNN and The New York Times, right?
When all is said and done, voters in 2008 will come to see how much the media manipulates polling data to influence voters. The liberal elite disdains the critical thinking skills of the great “unwashed” American electorate. Therefore, they have taken the responsibility of telling us what to think and how we are going to vote. Never mind that just a few months ago John McCain was their darling “moderate Republican” and Sarah Palin “the most popular governor in America.” According to experts, McCain’s campaign is in disarray and Palin is a drag on the ticket. It’s already too late for McCain. The polls show it. The talking heads have decreed it. The media has prewritten the script.
There is a problem with their duplicity. Polls are accurate on average within 3 to 4 points. If the polls on election day show that the pollsters were intentionally skewing the samples to break far outside the margin of error, the public will lose faith in polls. This tool to influence public opinion will be gone in the next election cycle. It is in the best interest of the pollsters to maintain accuracy. They realize though, that they need to be accurate only in the few days immediately preceding the election in order to maintain credibility.
This is also part of the prewritten script. It was foretold last week that the polls would tighten in the last few days. Several polls already show a statistical tie within the margin of error.
How did they know?
It is a loosely guarded secret that the political parties’ private polling data shows a much closer race. We saw McCain campaigning in Iowa, a state that the pollsters have far out of his reach. A leak from the Obama camp a week ago had their Pennsylvania poll as a one point race. Here is problem for the liberal pundits. With a McCain win, the public’s trust in polling must be thrown out the window.
There is yet another fact we hear little about. Obama needs to poll at 50 percent or higher in the last week in order to win. Here is why that may be a problem for him. In the primaries, Obama nearly always polled higher than the actual voting results. If the polls show Obama at 50 percent, then he is most likely now at 47 or 48 percent. The IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll — the most accurate presidential poll in 2004 — has Obama at 47 percent and McCain only 2.8 points behind at 44.2. If Obama is at that “iron ceiling” of 47 percent right now, it’s unlikely that he will move beyond that in the next seven days.
McCain is probably trailing at the moment, but he is within 3 or 4 points of a plurality. He merely has to shave one or two points from Obama supporters who may still change their mind. Then it is likely that most the “undecideds” will break in McCain’s favor. He will be the benefactor of most of the uncommitted vote. To have such a large block uncommitted this late in the story is unusual. So if Obama dips to 47 percent in the polls — a statistical tie — McCain could finish with an electoral college landslide.
The “x-factor” that Obama has to be concerned about is the three percent that according to almost all polling data will go toward Ralph Nader. These are points taken from Obama’s column. The one percent that might go to Bob Barr will be taken mostly from McCain. It’s possible that on November 5th, a statistical tie in the polls may yield the following results:
That’s a slim two point plurality, but it could be an electoral college landslide for McCain.
McCain …. 49 percent
Obama ….. 47 percent
Nader …….. 3 percent
Barr ……….. 1 percent
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