An Investor’s Business Daily poll today had John McCain holding steady nationally at 43.6 percent and Barack Obama at 47.7 percent. That leaves a huge number of undecideds — 8.7 percent.
The recent movement toward McCain has him leading over Obama among self-described Protestants (56% to 38%), Catholics (46% to 42%) and Other Christians (48% to 45%). The Catholic undecided vote is 12 percent — a huge number this close to election day. The recent movement toward McCain is attributed mainly to undecideds from these groups who seem to be deciding almost wholly for McCain. In other words, the remaining undecideds among Christian groups are a lock for McCain, because Obama supporters have already decided. Since Catholics in Pennsylvania make up roughly one-third of the population, that is four percent that could be added to McCain’s column. Protestants and Other Christians are at 6 and 7 percent undecided respectively.
In my opinion, these Christians are like me — conservative pro-lifer voters who are not for Obama, but have lingering doubts about pulling the lever for McCain. I expect most of this undecided group — up to 90 pecent — to break for McCain. If the most recent Mason Dixon poll in Pennsylvania that has McCain trailing by 4 points is correct, then this amount would be enough to put him over the top and pull off a stunning upset next Tuesday.
If the same trend is true nationally — with self-described Christians making up about 80 percent of the population — then an 80 percent pull from this undecided 8.7 percent gives McCain at least an additional 7 percent.
What does that mean? Expect McCain to win every state where he is trailing by less than 6 percent in the most favorable polls.
McCain will likely win the red states of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, New Mexico, I think that Pennsylvania will seal the deal early and perhaps he’ll even pick off Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.
«- McCain 3 points behind in the most accurate poll
- Pro-life Activism
- Abortion Clinic 911 Emergency Calls - Baby Rowan
-» Obama peaks early in polls
Your comments are welcome!
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