McCain’s hope rests in five states

McCain must win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Nevada — plus at least one other state — either Pennsylvania, Hew Hampshire, New Mexico or Colorado to pull this out. Commentators call this an inside straight, but the odds aren’t as unlikely as they paint them. But an early and decisive win in Pennsylvania by McCain may signal a historic upset.

Since the weekend polls show these races tightening, I have to conclude that the momentum for McCain will continue through Tuesday. The first three are not so tall an order and even though Obama is ahead withing the margin of error in the most recent polls, he is at or under 50 percent in all these critical states and that is the key.

Watch Obama’s numbers in the in polls tomorrow, not the spread between the two candidates. With this many undecided who say they intend to vote so late in the game, Obama’s numbers have probably peaked at where they are right now. If Obama falls to 48 or 49 it bodes well for McCain.

Then there the Nader/Barr wild card factor that could shift the election either way — but probably favors McCain since Nader is more popular than Barr and will pull votes from Obama.

3 Comments

I think a lot of pollsters are going to have some egg on there face!
Jay,

Your predictions were all wrong.
The outcome was wrong, but the polls on average were three points off in Obama's favor. Check RealClearPolitics.com vs the final results. They usually are accurate to within a point. But this time the polls were horrendously wrong.

My idea was that if McCain could have pulled to within three points in the polls by election day, then that would effectively mean McCain was ahead. I was right about the amount the polls were skewed, but not the outcome.

Since Obama won, very few people will care about how the media propagandizes with skewed poll results. If McCain won, it would have been more obvious.

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