Even without Sarah Palin on the ticket, John McCain already had the electoral college sewn up just after the Democratic convention.
That’s if the pre-convention polling results of the last 35 years are an indicator.
Let’s look at the data. A Democratic challenger needs at least an 18 to 19 point lead going into a convention.
McGovern had a 17 point lead in 1972.
Mondale had 14 in 1984.
Dukakis had 11 in 1988.
All ended up as landslides for the Republican candidates on election day.
On the other hand, Carter had a 21 point over Ford in 1976 and he barely eeked out a win in one of the closest elections in history.
Bill Clinton had the largest lead in history prior to the Democratic convention in 1992. Then the Democrats got an additional 16 point “bounce” (the largest in history) causing Ross Perot to drop out of the race temporarily. Of course, Clinton went on to win.
Barack’s outlook is dismal if we use this as a precedent.
Obama went into his convention with a 3 point and came out a 6 point lead — the lowest bounce ever.
The Democrat insiders saw the handwriting on the wall. Senator Jim Webb of Virginia and Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska both were asked to fill the vice president slot before Senator Biden. They saw the numbers and decided not to go down with a sinking ship. Biden apparently thought he had nothing to lose.
Now McCain is up by three or four points nationally according to the most recent polls and has been gaining a point or two per week in the key counties and states. The momentum is swinging toward McCain in every state.
The liberal media is going to keep saying that it all comes down to Pennsylvania, Colorado and New Mexico. If McCain loses all three, Obama loses the popular vote, but wins the electoral college. If McCain can take just one (which is almost a certainty) he slips in. If he wins all three and perhaps one or two more of the “blue” states, then it is an electoral college landslide. There is the strong possibility that even states such as Washington and New York are now moving toward McCain.
Of course, the media will try to paint it as a horse race and do everything they can to spin public opinion toward Obama, but this is going to be a landslide victory if trends continue — not as big as Nixon over McGovern in 1972 — but still a landslide.
(Thanks to Jeff Ziegler for his historical analysis and insights.)
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