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Does McCain have the nomination wrapped up?

Some people may think it is crazy to hold out hope that John McCain can be defeated. I liken it to the NFL when a much maligned 7-4 team had little hope of getting to the Superbowl in early December 2007. But they pulled off a few wins on the road at the end of the year and the mediocre team suddenly had a wild card spot. From there it was just four wins to the Superbowl championship against the only 18-0 undefeated team in NFL history.

If Huckabee wins Texas, then he suddenly becomes the New York Giants of the world of politics. Texas wins him a wild card spot. Indiana, Oregon and New Mexico are his playoff games and the Republican Convention is his Superbowl.

I thought that in order for Mike Huckabee to have continued his unlikely march toward destiny yesterday, he needed at least an upset win in Virginia. But as soon as he lost in single digits, the news pundits were already saying it proved that John McCain is “not conservative enough” for most Republican voters.

Here was my hopeful prediction on how Huckabee could have pulled out a win:

Huckabee—44
McCain—43
Paul—8
Other—5

And here was the final vote:

McCain—51
Hucakabee—40
Paul—5
other—4

So while Virginia dampens the hope for a brokered convention, Huckabee still finished three points better than the most favorable poll predicted.

So is it all over? There is still a possibility for a brokered convention. Since Huckabee lost Virginia and Maryland, he just has to pick up wins in two or three states with an equal amount of delegates. Wisconsin, Indiana, Oregon, New Mexico are possibilities. A recent poll shows Huckabee within striking distance of upsetting McCain in Wisconsin.

McCain—48
Huckabee—37
Paul —7

A couple of factors weigh toward Huckabee’s favor:

1. Low voter turn-out due to a lessening enthusiasm for McCain. The thought that he has it “wrapped up” actually works in Huckabee’s favor. The Clinton-Obama drama drew close to three times the number of voters in Virginia. Look for this to continue in open primary states. The “Anybody-But-Hillary” Republicans are crossing over to vote for Obama. McCain loses votes each time the attention swings to Obama vs Hillary.

2. Ron Paul has suspended his campaign in order to seek re-election as a Texas representative. But Paul’s supporters are tenacious and he still will pull in some votes. It is possible that the “Anybody But McCain” coalition could unite behind Huckabee and he could gain a percentage point or two from Paul’s supporters. Others will stay home. They didn’t come out in Virginia in the numbers I expected. On the other hand, a few diehard Paul supporters still hold out hope. Some may think that a vote for Huckabee is a vote for a brokered convention.

Texas is a must win for both candidates. McCain needs Texas to wrap up the nomination sooner than later. If McCain takes Texas, then it’s over. Texas will be Huckabee’s “last stand.” Campaign contributions shot up after last week’s big wins and guess where he’s spending most of this money? But if Huckabee takes Texas, then it gets interesting again. After March 4, most of the contests swing toward Huckabee’s natural territory.

Here’s the revamped scenario for a brokered convention. I’ll continue to track the mathematical possibility of blocking McCain — as crazy and quixotic as it may seem to some. The blue states can still go to McCain, but Huckabee needs to take all the red states and two or three of the purple states.

Red states are “must wins” for Huckabee.
Blues states are likely to go to McCain.
Purple states — Huckabee needs two or three of these

STATE—————- DATE ———- DELEGATES—- WINNER
Virginia ————02/12———- 63 W ———- McCain
Maryland————-02/12———- 37 C ———- McCain
D.C.——————-02/12———- 19 WC ——— McCain
Wisconsin————02/19———- 40

Samoa——————02/23———- 9
Puerto Rico———02/24 ——— 23
Texas——————03/04———-140
Ohio ——————03/04 ——— 88
Rhode Island——-03/04———- 20
Vermont—————03/04———- 17 W
Mississippi———03/10———- 39

Pennsylvania——-03/22———- 74 C

Virgin Islands—-04/04———— 9
North Carolina—-05/06———- 69
Indiana—————05/06———- 57
Nebraska————-05/13———- 33
Hawaii—————-05/16———- 20 C
Kentucky————-05/20———- 45 C
Oregon—————-05/20———- 30 C
Idaho——————05/27———- 32
New Mexico ———05/03———- 32 C
South Dakota——-06/03———- 27 C

W: Winner take all
C: Closed primary

Your comments are welcome!

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Martin Luther: Digitally Remastered 1953 Classic (DVD)

“Here I stand … I can do no other!”

With these immortal words, an unknown German monk sparked a spiritual revolution that changed the world.

The dramatic classic film of Martin Luther’s life was released in theaters worldwide in the 1950s and was nominated for two Oscars. A magnificent depiction of Luther and the forces at work in the surrounding society that resulted in his historic reform efforts, this film traces Luther’s life from a guilt-burdened monk to his eventual break with the Roman Catholic Church.

Running time: 105 minutes

Special offer: Order 5 or more for $5 each.

Watch a clip from Martin Luther.

$9.95 — ORDER NOW!

(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)

Click here for more information


The Beast of Revelation IdentifiedThe Beast of Revelation: Identified (DVD)

Who is the dreaded beast of Revelation?

Now at last, a plausible candidate for this personification of evil incarnate has been identified (or re-identified). Ken Gentry’s insightful analysis of scripture and history is likely to revolutionize your understanding of the book of Revelation — and even more importantly — amplify and energize your entire Christian worldview!

Historical footage and other graphics are used to illustrate the lecture Dr. Gentry presented at the 1999 Ligonier Conference in Orlando, Florida. It is followed by a one-hour question and answer session addressing the key concerns and objections typically raised in response to his position. This presentation also features an introduction that touches on not only the confusion and controversy surrounding this issue — but just why it may well be one of the most significant issues facing the Church today.

Ideal for group meetings, personal Bible study — for anyone who wants to understand the historical context of John’s famous letter “… to the seven churches which are in Asia.” (Revelation 1:4)

Running Time: 145 minutes

$17.95 — ORDER NOW!

(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)

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Dr. Francis Schaeffer - How Should We Then Live? (DVD)

Special Two-Disc Set!

After 40 years of intense study and world-wide ministry, Dr. Francis Schaeffer completed his crowning work of scholarship – to present profound truths in simple film language. Dr. Schaeffer’s brilliant analysis of the past and predictions for current trends have proven so uncannily accurate that this amazing series still feels contemporary almost three decades after its initial release. Ultimately, Schaeffer concludes that man’s only hope is a return to God’s Biblical absolute, the truth revealed in Christ through the Scriptures.

Available for the first time on DVD, this documentary spectacular also includes intimate in-depth conversations with Francis and Edith Schaeffer. With the on-disc study guide, this presentation forms a unique course of comprehensive study. While this series forms an innovative analysis of the past, this outstanding work is more than history. Each episode focuses on a significant era, yet speaks clearly to 21st-century man with answers for modern problems.

$49.95 — ORDER NOW!

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Dr. Francis Schaeffer - A Christian Manifesto (DVD)

That Swiss Hermit Strikes Again!

Dr. Schaeffer, who was one of the most influential Christian thinkers in the twentieth century, shows that secular humanism has displaced the Judeo-Christian consensus that once defined our nation’s moral boundaries. Law, education, and medicine have all been reshaped for the worse as a consequence. America’s dominant worldview changed, Schaeffer charges, when Christians weren’t looking.

Schaeffer lists two reasons for evangelical indifference: a false concept of spirituality and fear. He calls on believers to stand against the tyranny and moral chaos that come when humanism reigns-and warns that believers may, at some point, be forced to make the hard choice between obeying God or Caesar. A Christian Manifesto is a thought-provoking and bracing Christian analysis of American culture and the obligation Christians have to engage the culture with the claims of Christ.

$19.95 — ORDER NOW!

(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)

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The Four Keys to the Millennium (Book)

Foundations in Biblical Eschatology

By Jay Rogers, Larry Waugh, Rodney Stortz, Joseph Meiring. High quality paperback, 167 pages.

All Christians believe that their great God and Savior, Jesus Christ, will one day return. Although we cannot know the exact time of His return, what exactly did Jesus mean when he spoke of the signs of His coming (Mat. 24)? How are we to interpret the prophecies in Isaiah regarding the time when “the earth will be full of the knowledge of the LORD as the waters cover the sea” (Isa. 11:19)? Should we expect a time of great tribulation and apostasy or revival and reformation before the Lord returns? Is the devil bound now, and are the saints reigning with Christ? Did you know that there are four hermeneutical approaches to the book of Daniel and Revelation?

These and many more questions are dealt with by four authors as they present the four views on the millennium. Each view is then critiqued by the other three authors.

$12.95 — ORDER NOW!

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