After crunching all the numbers in my entry entitled, Is John McCain the inevitable nominee? I got an email yesterday saying Mitt Romney had dropped out of the race. Romney said he would endorse McCain if he won the nomination.
Romney cited the “War on Terror” as a reason why he could not continue to try to forestall the nomination process and throw the GOP into a brokered convention. In reality though, the reason he dropped out is that in a three man race most of the remaining delegates are likely to go to McCain or Huckabee.
Key battle ground states for Romney would have been Virginia, Louisiana, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, Kentucky, Maryland, Idaho, South Dakota, Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island. He simply could not have picked up enough delegates in the southern states with Huckabee in the race. In fact, there isn’t a single contest where Romney would have been a sure winner. Maybe Idaho and South Dakota?
Huckabee supporters now need to promote the following strategy.
1. Convince enough Romney voters to support Huckabee giving him a sizeable win in at least 11 of the upcoming primaries.
2. Promote the idea among McCain’s supporters that the nomination is all wrapped up creating a sense of apathy to the point where many will stay home on primary day.
3. Promote the idea that since the nomination is probably all wrapped up for McCain, non-conservative Republicans in open primary states ought to vote for Obama to block another Clinton era in the White House.
Here’s the rationale for this strategy.
With about 700 delegates in his column and 1,008 still to be chosen, McCain still needs to pick up 491 delegates in the remining state primaries to get to the magic number of 1,191. Simple math tells us that that he needs just to recoup 40 percent of the remaining delegates. Huckabee would have to win well over 500 of these remaining 1,008 delegates to block a majority for McCain.
Is it inevitable? Can Huckabee pull off one of the greatest political upsets of all time and defeat McCain? Although it’s not very probably it is possible. It would be on the level of a baseball team taking four straight games to win a World Series after being down 0-3. It a phenomenon that happens every 100 years or so.
Here’s a few things to consider:
1. Huckabee does not have to win 60 percent of the votes, but only the plurality in enough states to take enough delegates away from McCain to keep him from the majority.
2. The most likely scenario in which this could occur would be in outright wins in the following states: Virginia, Louisiana, Kansas, Mississipi, Nebraska, North Carolina, Kentucky, Maryland, Idaho, South Dakota, and Texas.
If he won these states decisively and picked up a few delegates in some others with a strong second place showing, he could get around 550 delegates, which would bring his total to over 700. That would effectively block a majority for McCain.
3. Huckabee would then need to convince the state parties whose primary voters went for Romney, that he is the more conservative choice over McCain. It’s not a hard case to make. He could do it simply by choosing Romney as a runnning mate.
For now the key is to forestall McCain’s nomination by winning in Virginia, Louisiana, Kansas, Mississipi, Nebraska, North Carolina, Kentucky, Maryland, Idaho, South Dakota, and Texas.
Can it be done?
It’s amazing to me that conservative talk show hosts Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh were practically begging Huckabee to drop out of the race so that Romney would have a chance on Super Tuesday. Yet now that Romney is out, Huckabee is seen to have no chance.
But he does have a chance and here is why.
McCain supporters are going to stay home in droves thinking the nomination is wrapped up. Some Romney supporters will either switch to Huckabee or stay home. An even more startling development could be that in open primary states, the “Anybody-but-Hillary” Republicans will choose the Democrat ballot and vote for Barack Hussein Obama.
Lousiania and Kansas are holding closed primaries tomorrow, but in Washington state an open primary ballot opportunity may convince conservative Republicans to cast a protest vote for Obama.
If tomorrow’s primaries show a trend in this direction, there may be a snowball effect and we will have a race again.
«- Romney quits! It's now a two man race!
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Who is the dreaded beast of Revelation?
Now at last, a plausible candidate for this personification of evil incarnate has been identified (or re-identified). Ken Gentry’s insightful analysis of scripture and history is likely to revolutionize your understanding of the book of Revelation — and even more importantly — amplify and energize your entire Christian worldview!
Historical footage and other graphics are used to illustrate the lecture Dr. Gentry presented at the 1999 Ligonier Conference in Orlando, Florida. It is followed by a one-hour question and answer session addressing the key concerns and objections typically raised in response to his position. This presentation also features an introduction that touches on not only the confusion and controversy surrounding this issue — but just why it may well be one of the most significant issues facing the Church today.
Ideal for group meetings, personal Bible study — for anyone who wants to understand the historical context of John’s famous letter “… to the seven churches which are in Asia.” (Revelation 1:4)
Running Time: 145 minutes
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Exposes the Dangers of Abortion to Women!
These shocking eyewitness accounts expose the dangers of abortion not only to unborn children, but to the health and lives women as well. An antidote to the smokescreens of the liberal media, these short clips show what really happens in and around abortion clinics.
Although the content is emotionally gut-wrenching, these videos have been used in church seminars and small groups to educate Christians on the abortion issue and to lead people toward a pro-life position. Contains 2 hours and 40 minutes of materials that can be shown separately.
Watch these pro-life videos on-line.
“These videos helped change my mind from pro-choice to pro-life. Your videos are what did it for me. I will be walking in next year’s March For Life in San Francisco.” — A. Jackson, California
“I was going to have an abortion until I saw your video. Praise Jesus!”
— M. Drew, YouTube Commenter
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“Here I stand … I can do no other!”
With these immortal words, an unknown German monk sparked a spiritual revolution that changed the world.
The dramatic classic film of Martin Luther’s life was released in theaters worldwide in the 1950s and was nominated for two Oscars. A magnificent depiction of Luther and the forces at work in the surrounding society that resulted in his historic reform efforts, this film traces Luther’s life from a guilt-burdened monk to his eventual break with the Roman Catholic Church.
Running time: 105 minutes
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Watch a clip from Martin Luther.
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Download the Free Study Guide!
God’s Law and Society powerfully presents a comprehensive worldview based upon the ethical system found in the Law of God.
Speakers include: R.J. Rushdoony, George Grant, Howard Phillips, R.C. Sproul Jr., Ken Gentry, Gary DeMar, Jay Grimstead, Steven Schlissel, Andrew Sandlin, Eric Holmberg, and more!
Sixteen Christian leaders and scholars answer some of the most common questions and misconceptions related to this volatile issue:
1. Are we under Law or under Grace?
2. Does the Old Testament Law apply today?
3. Can we legislate morality?
4. What are the biblical foundations of government?
5. Was America founded as a Christian nation?
6. What about the separation of Church and State?
7. Is neutrality a myth?
8. What about non-Christians and the Law of God?
9. Would there be “freedom” in a Christian republic?
10. What would a “Christian America” look like?
Perfect for group instruction as well as personal Bible study.
Ten parts, over four hours of instruction!
Running Time: 240 minutes
Watch over 60 on-line video interviews from God’s Law and Society.
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A Reasonable Response to Christian Postmodernism
Includes a response to the book Christian Jihad by Colonel V. Doner
The title of this book is a misnomer. In reality, I am not trying to get anyone to shut up, but rather to provoke a discussion. This book is a warning about the philosophy of “Christian postmodernism” and the threat that it poses not only to Christian orthodoxy, but to the peace and prosperity our culture as well. The purpose is to equip the reader with some basic principles that can be used to refute their arguments.
Part 1 is a response to some of the recent writings by Frank Schaeffer, the son of the late Francis Schaeffer. This was originally written as a defense against Frank’s attacks on pro-life street activism – a movement that his father helped bring into being through his books, A Christian Manifesto, How Should We Then Live? and Whatever Happened to the Human Race? These works have impacted literally hundreds of thousands of Christian activists.
Part 2 is a response to Colonel Doner and his book, Christian Jihad: Neo-Fundamentalists and the Polarization of America. Doner was one of the key architects of the Christian Right that emerged in the 1980s, who now represents the disillusionment and defection many Christian activists experienced in the 1990s and 2000s. There is still great hope for America to be reformed according to biblical principles. As a new generation is emerging, it is important to recognize the mistakes that Christian activists have made in the past even while holding to a vision for the future.
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