I filled out my absentee ballot yesterday and will mail it a few hours from now. I voted McCain/Palin. I would have voted Constitution Party if I didn’t think the election would be decided by just a few points — if that much.
It’s the first time since 1988 that I did not support the Constitution Party candidate, although I supported Frank Zilaitis, an independent running for U.S. Congress in my district. So you can put me in the column of millions of undecideds and independents who have suddenly shifted for McCain in the last week. I’ll explain more about that shift the day after our stunning victory next Tuesday.
The 2004 Indepedent Business Daily/TIPP poll was by far the most accurate indicator of the presidential election, having accurately predicted the election to within three-tenths of a point.
Here is the most current IBD/TIPP polling data:
Not Sure: 9.2%
Spread: Obama +3.0
What is remarkable about this poll is that it shows a 3 point swing from just eight days ago.
Not sure: 12.1%
While a three point swing is within the margin of error for most polls, what is remarkable is that it shows Obama’s support remaining constant while McCain has shifted all three points from the undecideds into his column. Nine percent of likely voters still remain undecided. That is unheard of this close to an election. In 2004, no poll showed more than four percent undecided with a full week to go.
In light of the huge number of undecideds, the race may easily end up one or two points in McCain’s favor and moving upward. Here’s why: The average of all polls in October have shown that Bob Barr (1.4 percent) and Ralph Nader (2.6 percent) have a consistent 4 points between them. This support seems constant although third party support is notoriously hard to gauge.
If we give a generous 4 points to the various independents, then that still leaves 5 points to be divided between Obama and McCain. It’s likely that Obama has peaked at 47 percent of the vote. Those who will vote for Obama have already decided to do so. Those undecideds who will still change their mind will break toward McCain. Few McCain supporters will shift to Obama.
McCain will probaby finish a point or two above Obama according to this model, but if some Obama supporters switch to McCain at the last minute, it could be a shocker of an election and over faster than anyone imagined. I remember 1980 when I was a freshman at the very liberal UMASS/Amherst. Ronald Reagan had trailed Jimmy Carter by 6 points just the week before, but Reagan won me and millions of others over in his last debate. It was over before most Californians has a chance to vote.
Last week, I changed my support to John McCain and I believe millions more will follow that pattern. If I am right, then it is going to be a lot of fun watching liberal commentators announce blue states such as New Hampshire and Pennsylvania turning red early in the night. That could tilt the election and we could see McCain picking off some unexpected blue states in the west.
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Foundations in Biblical Orthodoxy
Driving down a country road sometime, you might see a church with a sign proudly proclaiming: “No book but the Bible — No creed but Christ.” The problem with this statement is that the word creed (from the Latin: credo) simply means “belief.” All Christians have beliefs, regardless of whether they are written.
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Revival, Resistance, Reformation, Revolution
An Introduction to the Doctrines of Interposition and Nullification
In 1776, a short time after the Declaration of Independence was adopted, Thomas Jefferson, John Adams and Benjamin Franklin were assigned to design an official seal for the United States of America. Their proposed motto was Rebellion to Tyrants is Obedience to God. America owes its existence to centuries of Christian political philosophy. Our nation provided a model for liberty copied by nations the world over.
By the 21st century, we need a “Puritan Storm” to sweep away the Hegelian notion that the state is “God walking on earth.” We need revival and reformation in full force to vanquish the problems that plague us as a nation — from government controlled healthcare — to abortion on demand — to same sex “marriage.” This booklet gives a primer on our founders’ Christian idea of government and examines how the doctrine of nullification was woven into the Constitution as a safeguard against federal tyranny. It concludes with the history and theology of civil resistance. A Second American Revolution is coming with the Word of God growing mightily and prevailing! (Acts 19:20).
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Foundations in Biblical Eschatology
By Jay Rogers, Larry Waugh, Rodney Stortz, Joseph Meiring. High quality paperback, 167 pages.
All Christians believe that their great God and Savior, Jesus Christ, will one day return. Although we cannot know the exact time of His return, what exactly did Jesus mean when he spoke of the signs of His coming (Mat. 24)? How are we to interpret the prophecies in Isaiah regarding the time when “the earth will be full of the knowledge of the LORD as the waters cover the sea” (Isa. 11:19)? Should we expect a time of great tribulation and apostasy or revival and reformation before the Lord returns? Is the devil bound now, and are the saints reigning with Christ? Did you know that there are four hermeneutical approaches to the book of Daniel and Revelation?
These and many more questions are dealt with by four authors as they present the four views on the millennium. Each view is then critiqued by the other three authors.
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With “preaching to the lost” being such a basic foundation of Christianity, why do many in the church seem to be apathetic on this issue of preaching in highways and byways of towns and cities?
Is it biblical to stand in the public places of the world and proclaim the gospel, regardless if people want to hear it or not?
Does the Bible really call church pastors, leaders and evangelists to proclaim the gospel in the public square as part of obedience to the Great Commission, or is public preaching something that is outdated and not applicable for our day and age?
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Who is the dreaded beast of Revelation?
Now at last, a plausible candidate for this personification of evil incarnate has been identified (or re-identified). Ken Gentry’s insightful analysis of scripture and history is likely to revolutionize your understanding of the book of Revelation — and even more importantly — amplify and energize your entire Christian worldview!
Historical footage and other graphics are used to illustrate the lecture Dr. Gentry presented at the 1999 Ligonier Conference in Orlando, Florida. It is followed by a one-hour question and answer session addressing the key concerns and objections typically raised in response to his position. This presentation also features an introduction that touches on not only the confusion and controversy surrounding this issue — but just why it may well be one of the most significant issues facing the Church today.
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Running Time: 145 minutes
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