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McCain 3 points behind in the most accurate poll

I filled out my absentee ballot yesterday and will mail it a few hours from now. I voted McCain/Palin. I would have voted Constitution Party if I didn’t think the election would be decided by just a few points — if that much.

It’s the first time since 1988 that I did not support the Constitution Party candidate, although I supported Frank Zilaitis, an independent running for U.S. Congress in my district. So you can put me in the column of millions of undecideds and independents who have suddenly shifted for McCain in the last week. I’ll explain more about that shift the day after our stunning victory next Tuesday.

The 2004 Indepedent Business Daily/TIPP poll was by far the most accurate indicator of the presidential election, having accurately predicted the election to within three-tenths of a point.

Here is the most current IBD/TIPP polling data:

Date: 10/29/2008

McCain: 43.9%
Obama: 46.9%
Not Sure: 9.2%
Spread: Obama +3.0

What is remarkable about this poll is that it shows a 3 point swing from just eight days ago.

Date: 10/21/2008

McCain: 40.9%
Obama: 46.9%
Not sure: 12.1%
Obama +6.0

While a three point swing is within the margin of error for most polls, what is remarkable is that it shows Obama’s support remaining constant while McCain has shifted all three points from the undecideds into his column. Nine percent of likely voters still remain undecided. That is unheard of this close to an election. In 2004, no poll showed more than four percent undecided with a full week to go.

In light of the huge number of undecideds, the race may easily end up one or two points in McCain’s favor and moving upward. Here’s why: The average of all polls in October have shown that Bob Barr (1.4 percent) and Ralph Nader (2.6 percent) have a consistent 4 points between them. This support seems constant although third party support is notoriously hard to gauge.

If we give a generous 4 points to the various independents, then that still leaves 5 points to be divided between Obama and McCain. It’s likely that Obama has peaked at 47 percent of the vote. Those who will vote for Obama have already decided to do so. Those undecideds who will still change their mind will break toward McCain. Few McCain supporters will shift to Obama.

McCain will probaby finish a point or two above Obama according to this model, but if some Obama supporters switch to McCain at the last minute, it could be a shocker of an election and over faster than anyone imagined. I remember 1980 when I was a freshman at the very liberal UMASS/Amherst. Ronald Reagan had trailed Jimmy Carter by 6 points just the week before, but Reagan won me and millions of others over in his last debate. It was over before most Californians has a chance to vote.

Last week, I changed my support to John McCain and I believe millions more will follow that pattern. If I am right, then it is going to be a lot of fun watching liberal commentators announce blue states such as New Hampshire and Pennsylvania turning red early in the night. That could tilt the election and we could see McCain picking off some unexpected blue states in the west.

Your comments are welcome!

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The Abortion Matrix: Defeating Child Sacrifice and the Culture of Death (DVD)

Download the free Study Guide!

Is there a connection between pagan religion and the abortion industry?

This powerful presentation traces the biblical roots of child sacrifice and then delves into the social, political and cultural fall-out that this sin against God and crime against humanity has produced in our beleaguered society.

Conceived as a sequel and update to the 1988 classic, The Massacre of Innocence, the new title, The Abortion Matrix, is entirely fitting. It not only references abortion’s specific target – the sacred matrix where human beings are formed in the womb in the very image of God, but it also implies the existence of a conspiracy, a matrix of seemingly disparate forces that are driving this holocaust.

The occult activity surrounding the abortion industry is exposed with numerous examples. But are these just aberrations, bizarre yet anomalous examples of abortionists who just happen to have ties to modern day witchcraft? Or is this representative of something deeper, more sinister and even endemic to the entire abortion movement?

As the allusion to the film of over a decade ago suggests, the viewer may learn that things are not always as they appear to be. The Abortion Matrix reveals the reality of child-killing and strikes the proper moral chord to move hearts to fulfill the biblical responsibility to rescue those unjustly sentenced to death and to speak for those who cannot speak for themselves (Proverbs 24:11,12; 31:8,9).

Speakers include: George Grant, Peter Hammond, RC Sproul Jr., Paul Jehle, Lou Engle, Rusty Thomas, Flip Benham, Janet Porter and many more.

Ten parts, over three hours of instruction!

Running Time: 195 minutes

$19.95 — ORDER NOW!

(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)

Click here for more information


Go Stand Speak (DVD)

With “preaching to the lost” being such a basic foundation of Christianity, why do many in the church seem to be apathetic on this issue of preaching in highways and byways of towns and cities?

Is it biblical to stand in the public places of the world and proclaim the gospel, regardless if people want to hear it or not?

Does the Bible really call church pastors, leaders and evangelists to proclaim the gospel in the public square as part of obedience to the Great Commission, or is public preaching something that is outdated and not applicable for our day and age?

These any many other questions are answered in this documentary.

$19.95 — ORDER NOW!

(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)

Click here for more information


Martin Luther: Digitally Remastered 1953 Classic (DVD)

“Here I stand … I can do no other!”

With these immortal words, an unknown German monk sparked a spiritual revolution that changed the world.

The dramatic classic film of Martin Luther’s life was released in theaters worldwide in the 1950s and was nominated for two Oscars. A magnificent depiction of Luther and the forces at work in the surrounding society that resulted in his historic reform efforts, this film traces Luther’s life from a guilt-burdened monk to his eventual break with the Roman Catholic Church.

Running time: 105 minutes

Special offer: Order 5 or more for $5 each.

Watch a clip from Martin Luther.

$9.95 — ORDER NOW!

(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)

Click here for more information


Abortion Clinic 911 Calls (DVD)

Exposes the Dangers of Abortion to Women!

These shocking eyewitness accounts expose the dangers of abortion not only to unborn children, but to the health and lives women as well. An antidote to the smokescreens of the liberal media, these short clips show what really happens in and around abortion clinics.

Although the content is emotionally gut-wrenching, these videos have been used in church seminars and small groups to educate Christians on the abortion issue and to lead people toward a pro-life position. Contains 2 hours and 40 minutes of materials that can be shown separately.

Watch these pro-life videos on-line.

“These videos helped change my mind from pro-choice to pro-life. Your videos are what did it for me. I will be walking in next year’s March For Life in San Francisco.” — A. Jackson, California

“I was going to have an abortion until I saw your video. Praise Jesus!”
— M. Drew, YouTube Commenter

$4.95 — ORDER NOW!

(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)

Click here for more information


The Silent Scream (DVD) Eight Languages

“When the lives of the unborn are snuffed out, they often feel pain, pain that is long and agonizing.” – President Ronald Reagan to National Religious Broadcasters Convention, January 1981

Ronald Reagan became convinced of this as a result of watching The Silent Scream – a movie he considered so powerful and convicting that he screened it at the White House. More recently, it was by catching just a glimpse of what this film reveals that Planned Parenthood director and abortion advocate Abby Johnson turned and became a strong advocate for the pre-born.

The modern technology of real-time ultrasound now reveals the actual responses of a 12-week old fetus to being aborted. As the unborn child attempts to escape the abortionist’s suction curette, her motions can be seen to become desperately agitated and her heart rate doubles. Her mouth opens – as if to scream – but no sound can come out. Her scream doesn’t have to remain silent, however … not if you will become her voice. This newly re-mastered version features eight language tracks and two bonus videos.

“…a high technology “Uncle Tom’s Cabin” arousing public opinion just as Harriet Beecher Stowe’s 1852 antislavery novel ignited the abolitionist movement.” – Sen. Gordon Humphrey, Time Magazine

Languages: English, Spanish, French, South Korean, Chinese, Russian, Portuguese, Japanese

Running Time: 28 minutes

$17.95 — ORDER NOW!

(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)

Click here for more information

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The Abortion Matrix DVD: Update

The Abortion Matrix:
Defeating Child Sacrifice and the Culture of Death

is a 195-minute presentation that traces the biblical roots of child sacrifice and then delves into the social, political and cultural fall-out that this sin against God has produced. You can order this series on DVD, read the complete script and view clips on-line...
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