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Pollster Zogby predicts a McCain landslide

While most polls show Obama ahead nationally, a few that include third party voters and likely voters are tied or go in McCain’s favor.

On Thursday, Pollster John Zogby released a national poll in which John McCain had a slim two point lead over Barack Obama.

Similar results were seen in two other polls released on Thursday. A George Washington University Battleground poll showed McCain up by one point and a Gallup poll showed them tied.

Zogby was one of the most trusted pollsters in the 1990s when his polls were accurate to within one percent on average. The key to his success lies in the way he approaches “likely voters” over registered voters. He gained renown in the 1996 Presidential election when his final poll came within a tenth of a percentage point of the actual result.

Zogby was the only major pollster to predict the cliffhanger election of 2000, while most others predicted Bush winning handily.

Another of his “pet doctrines,” which I’ve read in various interviews, is that large blocks of “unsure” voters tend to wait until election day to decide.

In the 2004 election, Zogby lost some credibility when on the very day of the election, he predicted a huge victory for John Kerry. Some accused him of trying to skew the results in the western time zone states with a perceived Kerry trend in the east. Despite his personal prediction, Zogby’s final poll showed Bush with a one point lead over Kerry. Zogby later released an apology in which he stated, “I will do better next time: I will just poll, not predict.” – John Zogby, November 8, 2004

Since John Zogby is a self-described Democrat, and a liberal by most accounts, I find the following news item of interest:

According to John Zogby, president of Zogby International, Barack Obama still needs to sell himself to the country. If not, voters will likely side with “a comfortable old shoe.” That shoe is John McCain, the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle quoted Zogby as saying. Zogby also questioned if Americans are still asking of Obama, “Who are you, where are you from?” – The Boston Herald, 9/25/08

To put this a few other ways:

1. The make-up of the electoral college favors rural voters.

2. No Democrat since Jimmy Carter has won more than 49 percent of the popular vote. Clinton won with 43 percent and 49 percent. Carter won with 51 percent to Gerald Ford’s 49 percent.

3. Both Carter and Clinton ran as moderate Democrats and appealed to rural voters in the south.

4. Obama may have reached that Democrat “iron ceiling” of 43 to 49 percent.

5. Media run polls tend to underestimate Republican strength and especially the outcome of the more conservative or moderate candidate.

We saw that especially with Mike Huckabee and Hillary Clinton in the primaries. They both won huge victories in states where they were polled as close or trailing.

6. This is not a national election, it is a state by state election where the Democrats are historically more vulnerable.

Despite McCain’s showing in the national polls, he only has to pick up one or two states currently in Obama’s column to win. If we use the rule that the tie goes to the Republican, Zogby could be right in predicting a McCain landslide.

7. Even during the national economic turmoil, the numbers remain fairly competitive.

Listening to Zogby, one could only predict a McCain resurgence if an economic package is passed early next week with McCain seen as favoring the average taxpayer in the bailout.

Your comments are welcome!

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The Four Keys to the Millennium (Book)

Foundations in Biblical Eschatology

By Jay Rogers, Larry Waugh, Rodney Stortz, Joseph Meiring. High quality paperback, 167 pages.

All Christians believe that their great God and Savior, Jesus Christ, will one day return. Although we cannot know the exact time of His return, what exactly did Jesus mean when he spoke of the signs of His coming (Mat. 24)? How are we to interpret the prophecies in Isaiah regarding the time when “the earth will be full of the knowledge of the LORD as the waters cover the sea” (Isa. 11:19)? Should we expect a time of great tribulation and apostasy or revival and reformation before the Lord returns? Is the devil bound now, and are the saints reigning with Christ? Did you know that there are four hermeneutical approaches to the book of Daniel and Revelation?

These and many more questions are dealt with by four authors as they present the four views on the millennium. Each view is then critiqued by the other three authors.

$12.95 — ORDER NOW!

(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)

Click here for more information


Dr. Francis Schaeffer - A Christian Manifesto (DVD)

That Swiss Hermit Strikes Again!

Dr. Schaeffer, who was one of the most influential Christian thinkers in the twentieth century, shows that secular humanism has displaced the Judeo-Christian consensus that once defined our nation’s moral boundaries. Law, education, and medicine have all been reshaped for the worse as a consequence. America’s dominant worldview changed, Schaeffer charges, when Christians weren’t looking.

Schaeffer lists two reasons for evangelical indifference: a false concept of spirituality and fear. He calls on believers to stand against the tyranny and moral chaos that come when humanism reigns-and warns that believers may, at some point, be forced to make the hard choice between obeying God or Caesar. A Christian Manifesto is a thought-provoking and bracing Christian analysis of American culture and the obligation Christians have to engage the culture with the claims of Christ.

$19.95 — ORDER NOW!

(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)

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The Silent Scream (DVD) Eight Languages

“When the lives of the unborn are snuffed out, they often feel pain, pain that is long and agonizing.” – President Ronald Reagan to National Religious Broadcasters Convention, January 1981

Ronald Reagan became convinced of this as a result of watching The Silent Scream – a movie he considered so powerful and convicting that he screened it at the White House.

The modern technology of real-time ultrasound now reveals the actual responses of a 12-week old fetus to being aborted. As the unborn child attempts to escape the abortionist’s suction curette, her motions can be seen to become desperately agitated and her heart rate doubles. Her mouth opens – as if to scream – but no sound can come out. Her scream doesn’t have to remain silent, however … not if you will become her voice. This newly re-mastered version features eight language tracks and two bonus videos.

“…a high technology “Uncle Tom’s Cabin” arousing public opinion just as Harriet Beecher Stowe’s 1852 antislavery novel ignited the abolitionist movement.” – Sen. Gordon Humphrey, Time Magazine

Languages: English, Spanish, French, South Korean, Chinese, Russian, Portuguese, Japanese

Running Time: 28 minutes

$17.95 — ORDER NOW!

(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)

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God's Law and SocietyGod's Law and Society (DVD)

Download the Free Study Guide!

God’s Law and Society powerfully presents a comprehensive worldview based upon the ethical system found in the Law of God.

Speakers include: R.J. Rushdoony, George Grant, Howard Phillips, R.C. Sproul Jr., Ken Gentry, Gary DeMar, Jay Grimstead, Steven Schlissel, Andrew Sandlin, Eric Holmberg, and more!

Sixteen Christian leaders and scholars answer some of the most common questions and misconceptions related to this volatile issue:

1. Are we under Law or under Grace?
2. Does the Old Testament Law apply today?
3. Can we legislate morality?
4. What are the biblical foundations of government?
5. Was America founded as a Christian nation?
6. What about the separation of Church and State?
7. Is neutrality a myth?
8. What about non-Christians and the Law of God?
9. Would there be “freedom” in a Christian republic?
10. What would a “Christian America” look like?

Perfect for group instruction as well as personal Bible study.

Ten parts, over four hours of instruction!

Running Time: 240 minutes

Watch over 60 on-line video interviews from God’s Law and Society.

$19.95 — ORDER NOW!

(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)

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The Beast of Revelation IdentifiedThe Beast of Revelation: Identified (DVD)

Who is the dreaded beast of Revelation?

Now at last, a plausible candidate for this personification of evil incarnate has been identified (or re-identified). Ken Gentry’s insightful analysis of scripture and history is likely to revolutionize your understanding of the book of Revelation — and even more importantly — amplify and energize your entire Christian worldview!

Historical footage and other graphics are used to illustrate the lecture Dr. Gentry presented at the 1999 Ligonier Conference in Orlando, Florida. It is followed by a one-hour question and answer session addressing the key concerns and objections typically raised in response to his position. This presentation also features an introduction that touches on not only the confusion and controversy surrounding this issue — but just why it may well be one of the most significant issues facing the Church today.

Ideal for group meetings, personal Bible study — for anyone who wants to understand the historical context of John’s famous letter “… to the seven churches which are in Asia.” (Revelation 1:4)

Running Time: 145 minutes

$17.95 — ORDER NOW!

(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)

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