While most polls show Obama ahead nationally, a few that include third party voters and likely voters are tied or go in McCain’s favor.
On Thursday, Pollster John Zogby released a national poll in which John McCain had a slim two point lead over Barack Obama.
Similar results were seen in two other polls released on Thursday. A George Washington University Battleground poll showed McCain up by one point and a Gallup poll showed them tied.
Zogby was one of the most trusted pollsters in the 1990s when his polls were accurate to within one percent on average. The key to his success lies in the way he approaches “likely voters” over registered voters. He gained renown in the 1996 Presidential election when his final poll came within a tenth of a percentage point of the actual result.
Zogby was the only major pollster to predict the cliffhanger election of 2000, while most others predicted Bush winning handily.
Another of his “pet doctrines,” which I’ve read in various interviews, is that large blocks of “unsure” voters tend to wait until election day to decide.
In the 2004 election, Zogby lost some credibility when on the very day of the election, he predicted a huge victory for John Kerry. Some accused him of trying to skew the results in the western time zone states with a perceived Kerry trend in the east. Despite his personal prediction, Zogby’s final poll showed Bush with a one point lead over Kerry. Zogby later released an apology in which he stated, “I will do better next time: I will just poll, not predict.” – John Zogby, November 8, 2004
Since John Zogby is a self-described Democrat, and a liberal by most accounts, I find the following news item of interest:
According to John Zogby, president of Zogby International, Barack Obama still needs to sell himself to the country. If not, voters will likely side with “a comfortable old shoe.” That shoe is John McCain, the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle quoted Zogby as saying. Zogby also questioned if Americans are still asking of Obama, “Who are you, where are you from?” – The Boston Herald, 9/25/08
To put this a few other ways:
1. The make-up of the electoral college favors rural voters.
2. No Democrat since Jimmy Carter has won more than 49 percent of the popular vote. Clinton won with 43 percent and 49 percent. Carter won with 51 percent to Gerald Ford’s 49 percent.
3. Both Carter and Clinton ran as moderate Democrats and appealed to rural voters in the south.
4. Obama may have reached that Democrat “iron ceiling” of 43 to 49 percent.
5. Media run polls tend to underestimate Republican strength and especially the outcome of the more conservative or moderate candidate.
We saw that especially with Mike Huckabee and Hillary Clinton in the primaries. They both won huge victories in states where they were polled as close or trailing.
6. This is not a national election, it is a state by state election where the Democrats are historically more vulnerable.
Despite McCain’s showing in the national polls, he only has to pick up one or two states currently in Obama’s column to win. If we use the rule that the tie goes to the Republican, Zogby could be right in predicting a McCain landslide.
7. Even during the national economic turmoil, the numbers remain fairly competitive.
Listening to Zogby, one could only predict a McCain resurgence if an economic package is passed early next week with McCain seen as favoring the average taxpayer in the bailout.
Your comments are welcome!
“Give me liberty or give me death!”
Patrick Henry’s famous declaration not only helped launch the War for Independence, it also perfectly summarized the mindset that gave birth to, and sustained, the unprecedented experiment in Christian liberty that was America.
The freedom our Founders envisioned was not freedom from suffering, want, or hard work. Nor was it freedom to indulge every appetite or whim without restraint—that would merely be servitude to a different master. No, the Founders’ passion was to live free before God, unfettered by the chains of autocracy, shackles that slowly but inexorably bind men when the governments they fashion fail to recognize and uphold freedom’s singular, foundational truth: that all men are created in the image of God, and are thereby co-equally endowed with the right to “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.”
This presentation is a similar call, not to one but many. By reintroducing the principles of freedom that gave birth to America, it is our prayer that Jesus, the true and only ruler over the nations, will once again be our acknowledged Sovereign, that we may again know and exult in the great truth that “where the Spirit of the LORD is, there is liberty” (2 Cor. 3:17).
Welcome to the Second American Revolution!
This DVD features “Liberty: The Model of Christian Liberty” along with “Dawn’s Early Light: A Brief History of America’s Christian Foundations.” Bonus features include a humorous but instructive collection of campaign ads and Eric Holmberg’s controversial YouTube challenge concerning Mitt Romney’s campaign for president.
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Exposes the Dangers of Abortion to Women!
These shocking eyewitness accounts expose the dangers of abortion not only to unborn children, but to the health and lives women as well. An antidote to the smokescreens of the liberal media, these short clips show what really happens in and around abortion clinics.
Although the content is emotionally gut-wrenching, these videos have been used in church seminars and small groups to educate Christians on the abortion issue and to lead people toward a pro-life position. Contains 2 hours and 40 minutes of materials that can be shown separately.
Watch these pro-life videos on-line.
“These videos helped change my mind from pro-choice to pro-life. Your videos are what did it for me. I will be walking in next year’s March For Life in San Francisco.” — A. Jackson, California
“I was going to have an abortion until I saw your video. Praise Jesus!”
— M. Drew, YouTube Commenter
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Foundations in Biblical Eschatology
By Jay Rogers, Larry Waugh, Rodney Stortz, Joseph Meiring. High quality paperback, 167 pages.
All Christians believe that their great God and Savior, Jesus Christ, will one day return. Although we cannot know the exact time of His return, what exactly did Jesus mean when he spoke of the signs of His coming (Mat. 24)? How are we to interpret the prophecies in Isaiah regarding the time when “the earth will be full of the knowledge of the LORD as the waters cover the sea” (Isa. 11:19)? Should we expect a time of great tribulation and apostasy or revival and reformation before the Lord returns? Is the devil bound now, and are the saints reigning with Christ? Did you know that there are four hermeneutical approaches to the book of Daniel and Revelation?
These and many more questions are dealt with by four authors as they present the four views on the millennium. Each view is then critiqued by the other three authors.
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“Here I stand … I can do no other!”
With these immortal words, an unknown German monk sparked a spiritual revolution that changed the world.
The dramatic classic film of Martin Luther’s life was released in theaters worldwide in the 1950s and was nominated for two Oscars. A magnificent depiction of Luther and the forces at work in the surrounding society that resulted in his historic reform efforts, this film traces Luther’s life from a guilt-burdened monk to his eventual break with the Roman Catholic Church.
Running time: 105 minutes
Special offer: Order 5 or more for $5 each.
Watch a clip from Martin Luther.
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Who is the Real Jesus?
Ever since the dawn of modern rationalism, skeptics have sought to use textual criticism, archeology and historical reconstructions to uncover the “historical Jesus” — a wise teacher who said many wonderful things, but fulfilled no prophecies, performed no miracles and certainly did not rise from the dead in triumph over sin.
Over the past 100 years, however, startling discoveries in biblical archeology and scholarship have all but vanquished the faulty assumptions of these doubting modernists. Regrettably, these discoveries have often been ignored by the skeptics as well as by the popular media. As a result, the liberal view still holds sway in universities and impacts the culture and even much of the church.
The Real Jesus explodes the myths of these critics and the movies, books and television programs that have popularized their views. Presented in ten parts — perfect for individual, family and classroom study — viewers will be challenged to go deeper in their knowledge of Christ in order to be able to defend their faith and present the truth to a skeptical modern world – that the Jesus of the Gospels is the Jesus of history — “the same yesterday, today and forever” (Hebrews 13:8). He is the real Jesus.
Speakers include: George Grant, Ted Baehr, Stephen Mansfield, Raymond Ortlund, Phil Kayser, David Lutzweiler, Jay Grimstead, J.P. Holding, and Eric Holmberg.
Ten parts, over two hours of instruction!
Running Time: 130 minutes
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