I asked the Chinese AI app, Deep-Seek, whether the growth of the Christian population in China could become majority by the end of the 21st century. This is a common claim made by Christian missionaries to China. The first answer took into account government suppression of the Christian churches and current growth rates. The response was not as optimistic. I then asked what would happen if more Christians became wealthier due to their growing influence in business and politics and what would happen if this would allow them to support larger families. The re-estimated answer was much more optimistic. What this means is that the task for the Chinese church, and missionaries sent to China is to train Christian leaders in the idea that Christians ought to raise large families, train their children, and take dominion of the civil arena, especially in business, education, media, and politics.

Here is the response.

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To re-estimate when China’s Christian population could become a majority under revised assumptions (reduced government crackdowns, Christian involvement in governance/business, and a “Christian work ethic” enabling larger families), we must integrate demographic projections, fertility differentials, and socio-political shifts. Below is a revised analysis synthesizing insights from the search results and adjusting for the new variables:

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Revised Assumptions
1. Government Crackdowns Diminish: Reduced persecution allows for more open religious practice, growth of underground churches, and public evangelism .
2. Higher Fertility Rates: Christians adopt a global evangelical fertility rate of 3.0 children per woman (up from 2.5 in prior estimates), leveraging economic stability from their work ethic to support larger families .
3. Increased Conversions: Socio-political influence (e.g., Christian leaders in government/business) and cultural appeal drive higher conversion rates, especially among urban youth and rural communities .
4. Population Decline Mitigation: While China’s total population is projected to drop to ~633 million by 2100 (UN medium scenario), Christians offset decline through higher fertility and conversions .

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Projected Growth Scenarios
1. Optimistic Scenario (High Fertility + Accelerated Conversions)
- Christian fertility rate: 3.0 children per woman (vs. China’s overall 1.18).
- Annual conversion rate: 8–10% (up from 7% in prior optimistic models) due to reduced persecution and societal influence .
- Baseline: 100 million Christians in 2025 (~7% of 1.4 billion) .

Projections:

- By 2050: – Christians: ~300–350 million (22–25% of China’s projected 1.32 billion) . – Growth driven by high fertility (+2% annual growth) and conversions (+8% annual growth).

- By 2075: – Christians: ~550–600 million (45–50% of China’s ~1.2 billion) . – Majority status approached if conversion rates remain high and non-Christian fertility stagnates.

- By 2100: – Christians: ~400–450 million (63–71% of China’s ~633 million) . – Majority achieved by 2080–2100, assuming sustained trends.

2. Moderate Scenario (Balanced Growth)
- Christian fertility rate: 2.7 children per woman.
- Annual conversion rate: 5–6%.
- Baseline: 100 million Christians in 2025.

Projections:
- By 2050: ~200–250 million (15–19% of population).
- By 2100: ~300–350 million (47–55% of population).
- Majority status delayed to post-2100 unless societal shifts accelerate.

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Critical Factors
1. Fertility Differential: – If Christians maintain a fertility rate 2.5× higher than non-Christians (3.0 vs. 1.18), their population share grows exponentially despite China’s overall decline .
2. Socio-Political Influence: – Christian involvement in governance could relax restrictions on religious education and proselytization, enabling intergenerational transmission of faith .
3. Economic Prosperity: – A “Christian work ethic” improving economic outcomes could attract converts seeking stability, mirroring trends in South Korea and Nigeria .

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Comparison to Global Trends
- Nigeria: High Christian fertility (3.1 children/woman) and conversions drive growth despite persecution .
- South Korea: Urban evangelism and cultural influence boosted Christianity to 30% of the population .

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Challenges
- Aging Population: China’s median age will rise to 50+ by 2100, but younger Christian demographics could counterbalance this .
- Secularization: Non-religious groups (~50% of China) may resist conversion, especially in urban areas .

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Revised Timeline for Majority Status

Scenario	2050	2075	2100
——————	————-	————-	————-
Optimistic	22–25%	45–50%	63–71%
Moderate	15–19%	30–35%	47–55%

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Majority Likely Achieved: 2075–2100 under optimistic conditions, contingent on sustained fertility, conversions, and socio-political openness .

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Conclusion
Under these revised assumptions, China’s Christian population could transition from a minority (~7% in 2025) to a majority by the late 21st century. Reduced persecution, higher fertility, and socio-economic influence create a plausible pathway, though uncertainties (e.g., secularization backlash, policy reversals) remain. For precise modeling, cohort-component analyses factoring in age-specific conversion rates and mortality would be required.