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A Pyrrhic Victory on the Ides of March

How knocking Rubio out of the race would cost Cruz the nomination

Right: Pyrrhus and his elephants

“The armies separated; and, it is said, Pyrrhus replied to one that gave him joy of his victory that one other such victory would utterly undo him. For he had lost a great part of the forces he brought with him, and almost all his particular friends and principal commanders; there were no others there to make recruits, and he found the confederates in Italy backward. On the other hand, as from a fountain continually flowing out of the city, the Roman camp was quickly and plentifully filled up with fresh men, not at all abating in courage for the loss they sustained, but even from their very anger gaining new force and resolution to go on with the war.” ~ Plutarch, Life of Pyrrhus

Today is the fabled “Ides of March.” It is the day when — according to Plutarch and Suetonius — Julius Caesar was assassinated. It’s been long contended that Americans are the “New Romans” and that the transformation of our Constitutional Republic into an Empire began in the mid-20th century. An endless series of foreign wars, deficit spending and a general moral free-fall likens us to the Romans.

Today, we have the triumvirate of Clinton, Sanders and Trump, any one of whom — although they differ greatly in policy — would transform America slowly but surely from a constitutional republic into a statist empire.

A lone Constitutionalist, Ted Cruz, although not the perfect presidential candidate, is the only viable alternative from a delegate math perspective. Unfortunately, Cruz will come in a distant third in Florida. Many Cruz supporters ironically believe that knocking out the candidate who is closest to him in political ideology, Marco Rubio, will somehow help Cruz to win the nomination. A vote for Cruz in Florida will not help him. In fact, by throwing the Florida primary election to Trump, it would immediately block any path for Cruz to win the nomination — even eliminating the possibility of a contested convention.

I wrote several updates to my Delegate Math article in the past few weeks, trying to convince my Florida Republican friends that if Marco Rubio lost Florida to Trump, this would essentially seal the nomination for Trump. Florida is winner-take-all and its 99 delegates awarded to Trump would put him over the 700 mark on the way to 1237 delegates needed for the nomination.

I also showed that since over 120 delegates will go to the convention as unbound, the Donald only has to get up to about 1100 delegates. Trump will be able to make the strong case that in order to avoid a contested and divisive GOP Convention in July, those 120 delegates ought to unite and give him the nomination on the first ballot.

The only hope is for Cruz is to surpass Trump in the delegate count. He may not get to 1237 delegates, but in a virtual tie, the delegate role call at the convention would probably go to Cruz on the second ballot. Keeping the 99 winner-take-all Florida delegates out of Trump’s column is vital to that strategy.

Therefore, Cruz has all but pulled out of Florida, preferring to campaign in Missouri, Illinois and North Carolina where he has a better chance of picking up delegates. However, Cruz is still polling at 15 to 20 percent in Florida. Kasich is campaigning solely in Ohio, but he has shown a little surge in the past few days up to about 9 percent in Florida. This is counterintuitive and may reflect a few days’ lag in data rather than a surge toward voting day.

Let’s say for the sake of argument that Trump has a ceiling of 40 percent in Florida. The average of all recent polls have him at 43 percent, but Trump has been overestimated in many polls. Some of the widest gaffes have been in the polls leading up to the recent March 8th primaries. If that trend holds true, Rubio would have to win about 40 percent of the vote to keep the Florida contest from Trump. The other 20 percent could be split between Kasich and Cruz.

The current RealClear Politics polling average has the following as of today.

Trump 43.0
Rubio 24.7
Cruz 18.4
Kasich 9.1
TOTAL: 95.2
Undecided: 4.8

If this is accurate, then Trump assuredly has Florida sewn up. To keep Florida’s delegates and the GOP nomination from Trump, Rubio would somehow have to find a way win and take those 99 delegates out of Trump’s column.

Is there any possibility that this could happen?

In several recent primaries, many polls were monstrously wrong, while just one or two were close to the mark. A poll that concluded five days ago, WTSP/Mason-Dixon, which had a margin of error of 3.8 points, had Trump up by just 6 points over Rubio.

Trump 36
Rubio 30
Cruz 17
Kasich 8
TOTAL: 91
Undecided: 9

According to this poll, a Rubio win is possible even though most other polls have Trump way out front. It also assumes that most of the undecideds would break for Rubio.

Here are two possible scenarios in which Rubio could eke out a victory.

Rubio 38
Trump 37.0
Cruz 17
Kasich 8
TOTAL: 100

Another scenario has Cruz will coming in under 15 percent and Kasich around 5 percent.

Rubio 40.1
Trump 40.0
Cruz 14.9
Kasich 5
TOTAL: 100

Since the margin of polling error for each candidate is about 4 points, it is conceivable that Trump could underperform. Cruz and Kasich supporters who are repulsed by Trump might decide to not “waste their vote” and go with their second choice in Rubio on election day. It’s not very probable, but anything is possible. Florida has had some insanely close elections in recent memory and some surprising results. It is a notoriously difficult to take accurate polls in Florida due to diverse nature of the demographics statewide.

If you are a Cruz supporter and you think that knocking Rubio out of the race will benefit Cruz in future primaries, please think again. It would be a Pyrrhic victory in the truest sense of the word. The delegate math makes the nomination almost a certain lock for Trump if he gets a Florida win and takes all 99 delegates.

So I urge my Florida friends who want to block the Trump nomination to vote for Marco Rubio today.

Your comments are welcome!

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The United States of America 2.0: The Great Reset (Book)

High Quality Paperback — 40 pages of dynamite!

Revival, Resistance, Reformation, Revolution
An Introduction to the Doctrines of Interposition and Nullification

In 1776, a short time after the Declaration of Independence was adopted, Thomas Jefferson, John Adams and Benjamin Franklin were assigned to design an official seal for the United States of America. Their proposed motto was Rebellion to Tyrants is Obedience to God. America owes its existence to centuries of Christian political philosophy. Our nation provided a model for liberty copied by nations the world over.

By the 21st century, we need a “Puritan Storm” to sweep away the Hegelian notion that the state is “God walking on earth.” We need revival and reformation in full force to vanquish the problems that plague us as a nation — from government controlled healthcare — to abortion on demand — to same sex “marriage.” This booklet gives a primer on our founders’ Christian idea of government and examines how the doctrine of nullification was woven into the Constitution as a safeguard against federal tyranny. It concludes with the history and theology of civil resistance. A Second American Revolution is coming with the Word of God growing mightily and prevailing! (Acts 19:20).

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(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)

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Dr. Francis Schaeffer - How Should We Then Live? (DVD)

Special Two-Disc Set!

After 40 years of intense study and world-wide ministry, Dr. Francis Schaeffer completed his crowning work of scholarship – to present profound truths in simple film language. Dr. Schaeffer’s brilliant analysis of the past and predictions for current trends have proven so uncannily accurate that this amazing series still feels contemporary almost three decades after its initial release. Ultimately, Schaeffer concludes that man’s only hope is a return to God’s Biblical absolute, the truth revealed in Christ through the Scriptures.

Available for the first time on DVD, this documentary spectacular also includes intimate in-depth conversations with Francis and Edith Schaeffer. With the on-disc study guide, this presentation forms a unique course of comprehensive study. While this series forms an innovative analysis of the past, this outstanding work is more than history. Each episode focuses on a significant era, yet speaks clearly to 21st-century man with answers for modern problems.

$49.95 — ORDER NOW!

(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)

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In the Days of These Kings (Book)

Perfect-bound Paperback — 740 pages

The Book of Daniel in Preterist Perspective

“And in the days of these kings shall the God of heaven set up a kingdom, which shall never be destroyed: and the kingdom shall not be left to other people, but it shall break in pieces and consume all these kingdoms, and it shall stand for ever” (Daniel 2:44).

The overarching message of Daniel is that Jesus the Messiah is even now ruling over the nations. He is the King of kings. Daniel tells us that Messiah’s kingdom will advance in the whole world from “generation to generation” (Daniel 4:4,34). Christ’s dominion is “given to the people of the saints of the most High” (Daniel 7:22). Our purpose then is to see “all people, nations, and languages … serve and obey him” (Daniel 7:14,27).

This comprehensive work offers a fascinating look at the book of Daniel in preterist perspective. Great attention is paid to the writings of ancient and modern historians and scholars to connect the dots and demonstrate the continuity of Daniel’s prophecy with all of Scripture.

$19.95 — ORDER NOW!

(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)

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The Abortion Matrix: Defeating Child Sacrifice and the Culture of Death (DVD)

Download the free Study Guide!

Is there a connection between pagan religion and the abortion industry?

This powerful presentation traces the biblical roots of child sacrifice and then delves into the social, political and cultural fall-out that this sin against God and crime against humanity has produced in our beleaguered society.

Conceived as a sequel and update to the 1988 classic, The Massacre of Innocence, the new title, The Abortion Matrix, is entirely fitting. It not only references abortion’s specific target – the sacred matrix where human beings are formed in the womb in the very image of God, but it also implies the existence of a conspiracy, a matrix of seemingly disparate forces that are driving this holocaust.

The occult activity surrounding the abortion industry is exposed with numerous examples. But are these just aberrations, bizarre yet anomalous examples of abortionists who just happen to have ties to modern day witchcraft? Or is this representative of something deeper, more sinister and even endemic to the entire abortion movement?

As the allusion to the film of over a decade ago suggests, the viewer may learn that things are not always as they appear to be. The Abortion Matrix reveals the reality of child-killing and strikes the proper moral chord to move hearts to fulfill the biblical responsibility to rescue those unjustly sentenced to death and to speak for those who cannot speak for themselves (Proverbs 24:11,12; 31:8,9).

Speakers include: George Grant, Peter Hammond, RC Sproul Jr., Paul Jehle, Lou Engle, Rusty Thomas, Flip Benham, Janet Porter and many more.

Ten parts, over three hours of instruction!

Running Time: 195 minutes

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(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)

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The Silent Scream (DVD) Eight Languages

“When the lives of the unborn are snuffed out, they often feel pain, pain that is long and agonizing.” – President Ronald Reagan to National Religious Broadcasters Convention, January 1981

Ronald Reagan became convinced of this as a result of watching The Silent Scream – a movie he considered so powerful and convicting that he screened it at the White House.

The modern technology of real-time ultrasound now reveals the actual responses of a 12-week old fetus to being aborted. As the unborn child attempts to escape the abortionist’s suction curette, her motions can be seen to become desperately agitated and her heart rate doubles. Her mouth opens – as if to scream – but no sound can come out. Her scream doesn’t have to remain silent, however … not if you will become her voice. This newly re-mastered version features eight language tracks and two bonus videos.

“… a high technology “Uncle Tom’s Cabin” arousing public opinion just as Harriet Beecher Stowe’s 1852 antislavery novel ignited the abolitionist movement.” – Sen. Gordon Humphrey, Time Magazine

Languages: English, Spanish, French, South Korean, Chinese, Russian, Portuguese, Japanese

Running Time: 28 minutes

$17.95 — ORDER NOW!

(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)

Click here for more information

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The Abortion Matrix DVD: Update

The Abortion Matrix:
Defeating Child Sacrifice and the Culture of Death

is a 195-minute presentation that traces the biblical roots of child sacrifice and then delves into the social, political and cultural fall-out that this sin against God has produced. You can order this series on DVD, read the complete script and view clips on-line...
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