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Florida can keep Trump from the nomination

A plea to my friends in Florida who want to stop Donald Trump

See my updated statistics as of 3/13/16 below.

If you want to see Ted Cruz win the nomination, the best possible vote you can cast in Florida on March 15th is for Marco Rubio.

I have many friends who love Ted Cruz. I am not here endorsing any candidate. I love Ted Cruz as a presidential candidate. I am torn between him and Rubio who might not be as good a Constitutionalist as Cruz, but certainly better than Trump. So far, Cruz is second in delegate count nationwide.

So who should I vote for in Florida?

Rubio!

Here’s why. Florida is a winner-take-all primary state. Florida has 99 delegates. If Marco Rubio wins Florida, it will likely keep the nomination from Donald Trump. Then either Rubio or Cruz will likely get the nomination. Without those 99 delegates, Trump will not win the nomination on the first ballot.

UPDATED: 3/13/2016

On March 12th, Wyoming and Washington D.C. held primaries.

In Wyoming, 22 delegates are “unbound” and may vote for whoever they want. Among bound delegates chosen, Ted Cruz got 9 while Marco Rubio and Donald Trump got one each. The state’s other 29 delegates will be awarded at the state convention next month.

In the Washington D.C. primary, Rubio got 10 of the delegates, Kasich got 9, Trump and Cruz got none.

In a bizarre twist, the Virgin Islands chose no delegates because of confusion over the primary rules. Their 9 delegates will go to the convention unbound and may commit to candidates later in the process.

This is significant because this takes another small bite out of the remaiing delegate left to be chosen. Since Trump lost both contests, the hill to climb gets steeper to get to 50 percent plus one of the needed delegates.

An interesting yet little known fact is that according to new Republican Party rules, there now will be 121 “unbound” delegates because their states’ and territories’ – North Dakota, Colorado, Wyoming, American Samoa and Guam – delegates are chosen at state convention without reference to voters’ views on the presidential candidates.

Here is the delegate count as it stands on 3/13/2016.

Delegates needed to win GOP nomination: 1,237
(50% plus 1 of 2,472)

Trump: 460
Cruz: 370
Rubio: 163
Kasich: 63
Dropped out candidates: 15
“Unbound” 121

If Rubio wins Florida, then his remaining opponents only need to hold Trump to less than 59 percent of the remaining delegates. Trump has won only 43 percent of the delegates that have been chosen so far. The likelihood of forcing a contested vote at the Republican Convention in July becomes much higher with a Rubio win in Florida.

Total delegates: 2472
Delegates needed to win GOP nomination: 1237
Delegates alloted so far: 1071
Delegates left to be chosen: 1401
Delegates left minus unbound delegates: 1280
Delegates alloted to Trump (by March 13th): 460
Delegates Trump still needs: 777
Winner take all delegates in Florida: 99
Delegates left minus Florida: 1302
Delegates left minus Florida and unbound delegates: 1181
Percentage of delegates won by Trump so far: 43%
Percentage of remaining delegates Trump needs: 55.4%
Percentage Trump would need with Florida win: 42.9%
Percentage Trump would need with Florida loss: 59.7%
Percentage Trump needs without Florida’s and unbound delegates: 65.8%

Simply put, a win in Florida puts Trump on pace to win the nomination. In fact, he only needs to get close to 1237 because most unbound delegates would probably vote for Trump to avoid a contested convention. However, a loss in Florida makes it virtually impossible for him to get to 1237. Even with a slew of delegates from winner-take all states, he would most likely still fall short of the mark. Then ,more the unbound delegates might be swayed to go other candidates’ columns.

This is why you will see Florida become “ground zero” for the next week with Trump and the mainstream media calling for Rubio to quit a few days before the primary. Cruz supporters need to understand that this is precisely why Rubio should not quit.

This same principle will be compounded if anyone other than Trump gets a large winner-take-all state such as California or Ohio. If you want to defeat Trump and you live on a winner-take-all state, then you should vote strategically even if it is not for your favorite candidate.

In a proportional state, you should vote for who you consider the best candidate for the presidency. However, in the winner-take-all states, this changes entirely.

Florida is also a closed primary state, meaning that Democrats and Independents can’t vote in the Republican primary. It’s been shown that states such as Massachusetts where Trump won big had huge numbers of Democrat and Independent crossover voters to the Republican primary. As we get close to the March 15th primary, the polling is likely to get tighter between the top two candidates.

Why not Cruz to beat Trump in Florida?

I’m not trying to get Cruz supporters to be for Rubio to win the nomination.

Let’s say for the sake of argument that Cruz is 20 points behind Trump in the polls as all polls suggest. Let’s say Rubio is within the margin of error to beat Trump as several polls suggest. The polls are sometimes wrong, but the average of all recent polls several days before an election is never off by 20 points.

Knowing that a win for Rubio — even by one point — could block Trump and give Cruz a much better chance at the nomination, would Cruz supporters still want to back Cruz knowing that Trump would get the 99 delegates and win the nomination more easily?

Those 99 delegates are actually a swing vote of 198 delegates. Not only would it keep 99 from Trump, but in a contested convention with Cruz in the lead, Rubio would more likely throw his support behind Cruz in the second ballot. The delegates would be free to vote for whoever they wanted, but a Cruz-Rubio ticket would likely unite a majority.

Those 99 delegates are going to be huge. Florida is the second largest winner-take-all state. California will be the largest in June.

Yes, if the situation were reversed and Cruz had a chance to beat Trump and Rubio was 20 points behind at the midnight hour, I’d tell everyone to vote for Cruz. I think that situation is much less likely, but it holds true.

The reality is that after March 15th, there will be more winner-take-all states like Florida — and many threshold states in which only candidates who get at least 20 percent of the votes are alloted delegates. We have two Tea Party conservatives in Cruz and Rubio who might be splitting more than 50 percent of the vote in Florida. Yet Trump could win with between 30 to 40 percent.

If Trump wins all 99 Florida delegates, he’s likely going to become the nominee.

So I am asking Cruz supporters to be wise. If Rubio wins Florida, Trump likely won’t get enough enough delegates to win on the first ballot. It could help Cruz win the nomination if he remains in close second place throughout the end of the primary season. But first Trump must be stopped in Florida.

As we get closer to March 15th and the Republican deabte next Thursday in Miami, more people are going to realize that when I am saying here is true. That could mean Rubio will win a lot more easily than the polls taken in February and early March suggest.

How the Delegate Count Works

In a four-way race, it is mathematically possible to get a majority delegate count with a small minority/plurality. In the winner-take-all primary states, you don’t need a majority to win all the delegates. In fact, in these states, it is mathematically possible to get 100 percent of the delegates with 25.1% of the popular vote in a close four-way race.

Here are the major states still to come that have winner-take-all and threshold qualification contests.

  1. California — 172 — June 7, 2016 (winner-take-all statewide and by district)
  2. Florida — 99 — March 15, 2016 (winner-take-all)
  3. New York — 95 — April 19, 2016 (proportional with 20% threshold)
  4. North Carolina — 72 — March 15, 2016 (proportional)
  5. Pennsylvania — 71 — April 26 (winner-take-all)
  6. Illinois — 69 — March 15, 2016 (winner-take-all)
  7. Ohio — 66 — March 15, 2016 (winner-take-all)
  8. Arizona — 58 — March 22, 2016 (winner-take-all)
  9. Indiana — 57 — May 3, 2016 (winner-take-all statewide and by district)
  10. Missouri — 52 — March 15, 2016 (winner take all above 50% or by district)
  11. New Jersey — 51 — June 7, 2016 (winner take all)

Most of these are winner-take-all or threshold states. If Cruz and Rubio supporters will vote strategically in the March 15th primaries, Trump will not get the delegates he needs to win the nomination on the first ballot.

Your comments are welcome!

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Freedom: The Model of Christian Liberty (DVD)

“Give me liberty or give me death!”

Patrick Henry’s famous declaration not only helped launch the War for Independence, it also perfectly summarized the mindset that gave birth to, and sustained, the unprecedented experiment in Christian liberty that was America.

The freedom our Founders envisioned was not freedom from suffering, want, or hard work. Nor was it freedom to indulge every appetite or whim without restraint—that would merely be servitude to a different master. No, the Founders’ passion was to live free before God, unfettered by the chains of autocracy, shackles that slowly but inexorably bind men when the governments they fashion fail to recognize and uphold freedom’s singular, foundational truth: that all men are created in the image of God, and are thereby co-equally endowed with the right to “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.”

This presentation is a similar call, not to one but many. By reintroducing the principles of freedom that gave birth to America, it is our prayer that Jesus, the true and only ruler over the nations, will once again be our acknowledged Sovereign, that we may again know and exult in the great truth that “where the Spirit of the LORD is, there is liberty” (2 Cor. 3:17).

Welcome to the Second American Revolution!

This DVD features “Liberty: The Model of Christian Liberty” along with “Dawn’s Early Light: A Brief History of America’s Christian Foundations.” Bonus features include a humorous but instructive collection of campaign ads and Eric Holmberg’s controversial YouTube challenge concerning Mitt Romney’s campaign for president.

Special discount price:
(We accept PayPal and all major credit cards.)

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Massacre of Innocence (DVD)

Exposing The Occult Roots of Abortion

This presentation looks at the spiritual roots of abortion and exposes the myths surrounding child killing. Little known historical facts about abortion and how they relate to modern feminism are presented logically and accurately. Has been effective in converting many to a pro-life position.

Massacre of Innocence goes where no pro-life presentation has gone before in “tearing the lid off abortion” to reveal the spiritual realities we must battle if we will bring an end to this crime. The presentation is absorbing, fast-paced, informative and incredibly devastating to any attempt to justify abortion.

“… an extraordinary statement … a powerfully articulate presentation about what abortion really means, and why a great and moral nation like the United States must not allow the slaughter to continue.”
— Congressman Robert K. Dornan

Running time: 85 minutes

Packaged in a double DVD case with the updated The Abortion Matrix DVD.

Special discount price:
(We accept PayPal and all major credit cards.)

Click here for more information


In the Days of These Kings (Book)

Perfect-bound Paperback — 740 pages

The Book of Daniel in Preterist Perspective

“And in the days of these kings shall the God of heaven set up a kingdom, which shall never be destroyed: and the kingdom shall not be left to other people, but it shall break in pieces and consume all these kingdoms, and it shall stand for ever” (Daniel 2:44).

The overarching message of Daniel is that Jesus the Messiah is even now ruling over the nations. He is the King of kings. Daniel tells us that Messiah’s kingdom will advance in the whole world from “generation to generation” (Daniel 4:4,34). Christ’s dominion is “given to the people of the saints of the most High” (Daniel 7:22). Our purpose then is to see “all people, nations, and languages … serve and obey him” (Daniel 7:14,27).

This comprehensive work offers a fascinating look at the book of Daniel in preterist perspective. Great attention is paid to the writings of ancient and modern historians and scholars to connect the dots and demonstrate the continuity of Daniel’s prophecy with all of Scripture.

Special discount prices:
(We accept PayPal and all major credit cards.)

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The Real Jesus: A Defense of the Historicity and Divinity of ChristThe Real Jesus: A Defense of the Historicity and Divinity of Christ (DVD)

Who is the Real Jesus?

Ever since the dawn of modern rationalism, skeptics have sought to use textual criticism, archeology and historical reconstructions to uncover the “historical Jesus” — a wise teacher who said many wonderful things, but fulfilled no prophecies, performed no miracles and certainly did not rise from the dead in triumph over sin.

Over the past 100 years, however, startling discoveries in biblical archeology and scholarship have all but vanquished the faulty assumptions of these doubting modernists. Regrettably, these discoveries have often been ignored by the skeptics as well as by the popular media. As a result, the liberal view still holds sway in universities and impacts the culture and even much of the church.

The Real Jesus explodes the myths of these critics and the movies, books and television programs that have popularized their views. Presented in ten parts — perfect for individual, family and classroom study — viewers will be challenged to go deeper in their knowledge of Christ in order to be able to defend their faith and present the truth to a skeptical modern world – that the Jesus of the Gospels is the Jesus of history — “the same yesterday, today and forever” (Hebrews 13:8). He is the real Jesus.

Speakers include: George Grant, Ted Baehr, Stephen Mansfield, Raymond Ortlund, Phil Kayser, David Lutzweiler, Jay Grimstead, J.P. Holding, and Eric Holmberg.

Ten parts, over two hours of instruction!

Running Time: 130 minutes

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Frank Schaeffer Will You Please Shut Up! (Book)

High Quality Paperback — 200 pages

A Reasonable Response to Christian Postmodernism

Includes a response to the book Christian Jihad by Colonel V. Doner

The title of this book is a misnomer. In reality, I am not trying to get anyone to shut up, but rather to provoke a discussion. This book is a warning about the philosophy of “Christian postmodernism” and the threat that it poses not only to Christian orthodoxy, but to the peace and prosperity our culture as well. The purpose is to equip the reader with some basic principles that can be used to refute their arguments.

Part 1 is a response to some of the recent writings by Frank Schaeffer, the son of the late Francis Schaeffer. This was originally written as a defense against Frank’s attacks on pro-life street activism – a movement that his father helped bring into being through his books, A Christian Manifesto, How Should We Then Live? and Whatever Happened to the Human Race? These works have impacted literally hundreds of thousands of Christian activists.

Part 2 is a response to Colonel Doner and his book, Christian Jihad: Neo-Fundamentalists and the Polarization of America. Doner was one of the key architects of the Christian Right that emerged in the 1980s, who now represents the disillusionment and defection many Christian activists experienced in the 1990s and 2000s. There is still great hope for America to be reformed according to biblical principles. As a new generation is emerging, it is important to recognize the mistakes that Christian activists have made in the past even while holding to a vision for the future.

Special discount price:
(We accept PayPal and all major credit cards.)

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