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Is John McCain the inevitable nominee? (the morning after)

As of the morning after Super Tuesday, this is how it stands:

Delegates needed to win – 1,191

McCain – 597
Romney – 240
Huckabee – 178
Paul – 14

Since John McCain is more than halfway to the magic number with less than half the delegates chosen, the media pundits have told us that he’s a clear lock for the nomination.

But wait …

A lot of people don’t understand how this works. The Republican primary system is very different from the same process by the Democrats. There are more caucuses — a process in which delegates are chosen by a committee. Although voting takes place in caucuses it is often possible to win without getting the most votes in the first round as Huckabee did yesterday in West Virginia. There are several “winner-take-all” states in which a simple plurality of votes, or in some cases a needed majority, yield all the delegates to one candidates. This process was set up early on to help Giuliani win in big states such as New York and California, but since Rudy is out of the race, these states went to McCain.

There are also the so-called “super delegates” which are chosen by party insiders — these are uncommitted delgates, who are elected state officers and leading party officials. At the party convention, they can back anyone they choose. The idea is that most of these super delegates would back the candidate who is closest to striking distance. Even if he does not come to the convention with the clear majority of 1,191, he would still win the nomination by virtue of being the frontrunner.

An interesting scenario has unfolded in which McCain has won only about 40 percent of the popular vote, but has 58 percent of the delgates so far.

So here is the question …

If the majority of the voters choose to back another candidate, such as Huckabee or Romney in the remaining primaries, then would it be possible to form a conservative coalition to block McCain?

Huckabee only narrowly lost South Carolina and Missouri to McCain. But because of the disproportional representation in delegate selection, this gave McCain a huge bump in media coverage and Huckabee lost momentum.

If Huckabee had just won Missouri last night, the scenario would be different right now. It would look like this:

McCain – 539
Romney – 240
Huckabee – 236
Paul – 14

It would also have put the combined delegate count of the three trailing candidates at 490. What if the three candidates chose to combine their effort to overcome the McCain momentum? It would put one of the candidates in a position to overtake McCain.

The loss of Missouri can be made up for in some of the southern primaries coming up later this month. It will be interesting to see whether conservative voters in the upcoming primaries back Romney or Huckabee. Will there be a conservative backlash? What if McCain does not have a clear majority of delegates by the convention? What if Huckabee finishes ahead of Romney? Could we see a scenario in which Romney and Ron Paul throw their support behind Huckabee in order to make up the difference between them collectively and McCain.

What if they proposed a ticket with Huckabee as the nominee, Romney as vice president and put Ron Paul in charge of a cabinet postion that would close the IRS?

That would unite the party and generate excitement and fervor behind a Republican ticket that a McCain/Huckabee ticket could never generate.

Your comments are welcome!

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Dr. Francis Schaeffer - A Christian Manifesto (DVD)

That Swiss Hermit Strikes Again!

Dr. Schaeffer, who was one of the most influential Christian thinkers in the twentieth century, shows that secular humanism has displaced the Judeo-Christian consensus that once defined our nation’s moral boundaries. Law, education, and medicine have all been reshaped for the worse as a consequence. America’s dominant worldview changed, Schaeffer charges, when Christians weren’t looking.

Schaeffer lists two reasons for evangelical indifference: a false concept of spirituality and fear. He calls on believers to stand against the tyranny and moral chaos that come when humanism reigns-and warns that believers may, at some point, be forced to make the hard choice between obeying God or Caesar. A Christian Manifesto is a thought-provoking and bracing Christian analysis of American culture and the obligation Christians have to engage the culture with the claims of Christ.

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Dr. Francis Schaeffer - How Should We Then Live? (DVD)

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Available for the first time on DVD, this documentary spectacular also includes intimate in-depth conversations with Francis and Edith Schaeffer. With the on-disc study guide, this presentation forms a unique course of comprehensive study. While this series forms an innovative analysis of the past, this outstanding work is more than history. Each episode focuses on a significant era, yet speaks clearly to 21st-century man with answers for modern problems.

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Martin Luther: Digitally Remastered 1953 Classic (DVD)

“Here I stand … I can do no other!”

With these immortal words, an unknown German monk sparked a spiritual revolution that changed the world.

The dramatic classic film of Martin Luther’s life was released in theaters worldwide in the 1950s and was nominated for two Oscars. A magnificent depiction of Luther and the forces at work in the surrounding society that resulted in his historic reform efforts, this film traces Luther’s life from a guilt-burdened monk to his eventual break with the Roman Catholic Church.

Running time: 105 minutes

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Watch a clip from Martin Luther.

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Abortion Clinic 911 Calls (DVD)

Exposes the Dangers of Abortion to Women!

These shocking eyewitness accounts expose the dangers of abortion not only to unborn children, but to the health and lives women as well. An antidote to the smokescreens of the liberal media, these short clips show what really happens in and around abortion clinics.

Although the content is emotionally gut-wrenching, these videos have been used in church seminars and small groups to educate Christians on the abortion issue and to lead people toward a pro-life position. Contains 2 hours and 40 minutes of materials that can be shown separately.

Watch these pro-life videos on-line.

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A Revival Account: Asbury 1970 (DVD)

What is true Revival and Spiritual Awakening?

Discover the answer in this eyewitness account by Dennis Kinlaw, President of Asbury College, Wilmore, Kentucky, who recounts the story of a visitation of the Holy Spirit in 1970. This is the presentation that has continued to spark the flames of Revival in the hearts of people around the world. Contains eyewitness footage from the Revival at Asbury College in 1970 in Wilmore, Kentucky.

Certain to challenge you to greater holiness and a deeper commitment to full-scale revival. Original news and private footage has been included. If you are a student who longs to see a spiritual awakening at your school, you must see this video!

“This simple video does a wonderful job of conveying something of God’s heart and power, Everyone we have ever shown this to has received an immediate impartation of faith for revival and the power of prayer.”
— Bob and Rose Weiner, Weiner Ministries Int’l

Running Time: 40 minutes

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