I’ve been saying for over a month that most of the pollsters and media pundits are wrong — that they are intentionally skewing the poll data to influence public opinion. Now with less than a week left before the election, Obama’s lead in an average of all polls at RealClearPolitics.com is under six points. The most reliable polls (the ones that have been the best predictors in the past) all have McCain within 2 to 4 points of Obama.
The most bizarre development is that several of these polls have swung 5 points toward McCain in just four days. May I suggest that in order to save face, the media pollsters are now releasing more accurate data.
In the last week, both McCain and Obama have been campaiginig strong in states where the polls have a “lock” for Obama. Why is that? Internal Democratic and Republican Party polling data has McCain ahead in Ohio by two points and behind in Pennsylvania by only two points. Several other sources have said it will be a shocker if McCain does not win both states.
But assuming that the most accurate polls are correct, can McCain make up as much as 4 or 5 points nationally in less than a week?
Here is some recent history:
George W. Bush held a 5 point lead in the RealClearPolitics tracking poll over Al Gore with six days left in the 2000 race. Gore then won the popular vote by less than half a point.
Bush then led Democratic challenger John Kerry by one point in the polls in 2004 before winning re-election by 3.
If recent history is a guide, then a four point swing is not so unlikely. If we go all the way back to the Kennedy-Nixon race, what we see is that the Republican usually gains on the Democrat as election day draws closer. If McCain does win, it is going to be fun to watch MSNBC and CNN and hear the demonic ranting and raving.
The key indicator to watch is not McCain’s numbers, but Obama’s numbers. If Obama drops to 47 points in any number of polls, it is unlikely that he’ll break that ceiling on election day. Then when we throw Nader and Barr into the mix, McCain can win with 49 percent of the vote. Obama’s history has shown that he usually peaks early and then wins by less of a margin than what the last few polls show.
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“When the lives of the unborn are snuffed out, they often feel pain, pain that is long and agonizing.” – President Ronald Reagan to National Religious Broadcasters Convention, January 1981
Ronald Reagan became convinced of this as a result of watching The Silent Scream – a movie he considered so powerful and convicting that he screened it at the White House. More recently, it was by catching just a glimpse of what this film reveals that Planned Parenthood director and abortion advocate Abby Johnson turned and became a strong advocate for the pre-born.
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All Christians believe that their great God and Savior, Jesus Christ, will one day return. Although we cannot know the exact time of His return, what exactly did Jesus mean when he spoke of the signs of His coming (Mat. 24)? How are we to interpret the prophecies in Isaiah regarding the time when “the earth will be full of the knowledge of the LORD as the waters cover the sea” (Isa. 11:19)? Should we expect a time of great tribulation and apostasy or revival and reformation before the Lord returns? Is the devil bound now, and are the saints reigning with Christ? Did you know that there are four hermeneutical approaches to the book of Daniel and Revelation?
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God’s Law and Society powerfully presents a comprehensive worldview based upon the ethical system found in the Law of God.
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Watch over 60 on-line video interviews from God’s Law and Society.
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