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Will the delegate math trump Trump?

I am not the best predictor of general election results. In 1990, I predicted that John Silber would easily become the governor of Massachusetts and in 2008 that John McCain would win a landslide Electoral College victory over Barack Obama. Of course, both predictions were wrong.

However, I’ve been good at predicting the Republican Party nominee. If we look at the 2012 and 2008 races, the front runner did not emerge until late. In both contests, it looked as though an “insurgent” candidate was the inevitable nominee. I knew that McCain and Romney were the inevitable nominees despite the media driven polls prior to the primaries.

2012 GOP Presidential Nomination RealClear Politics average. Click to enlarge.

Look at what occurred in 2012 in the RealClear Politics poll averages. Clearly, you can see that until March 1st, no candidate broke the 35% threshold in the polling average. Candidates see-sawed into the lead each month to be the alternative to Romney who just hung in there at a 25% ceiling until mid-January.

2008 GOP Presidential Nomination RealClear Politics average. Click to enlarge.

Likewise, McCain’s rise in the polls in 2008 didn’t come until very late. Rudy Giuliani had a commanding lead until it evaporated in January. McCain never had more than 25% and was often in fourth place at 12% until December. For a brief period, Mike Huckabee broke out. But Giuliani’s lead in 2008 was consistently higher than Trump’s in 2012 for a longer period of time. Yet many in the media claim Trump is an unheard of phenomenon and no one can touch his commanding lead.

This time, I predict Jeb Bush will emerge as the eventual nominee.

What?!

Yes, you read that right: Jeb Bush.

Why Jeb Bush will win the nomination

Bush is not my candidate, but he will be the nominee. You see, it’s all rigged. The polls mean nothing prior to actual votes being cast. Rubio will be his running mate — or Nikki Haley. Now before you discount this, hear me out. The reason I say it’s rigged, is not to say that your vote doesn’t count. Your vote is counted. What I mean is that before Super Tuesday, the governors of states, who have a lot of sway in the Republican Party primaries, will usually settle on a “favorite son.”

Who were these favorite sons?

1960 — Nixon, sitting vice president
1964 — Goldwater
1968 — Nixon, former vice president
1972 — Nixon
1976 — Ford, sitting president after Nixon’s resignation.
1980 — Reagan, runner-up to Ford
1984 — Reagan
1988 — H.W. Bush, sitting vice president
1992 — H.W. Bush
1996 — Dole, runner up to Bush and Ford’s vice presidential nominee
2000 — W. Bush, son of H.W. Bush
2004 — W. Bush
2008 — McCain, runner-up to W. Bush
2012 — Romney, second runner-up to John McCain
2016 — ?

With the exception of Goldwater, it has been the “favorite son” syndrome since 1960. No sitting president has lost the nomination in recent memory, even though Gerald Ford came close to losing to Ronald Reagan in 1976. In an open contest, the nomination goes to a sitting or past vice president, to the runner up in the last primary contest or to the son of George Bush. It is predictable.

I don’t see the Republican governors supporting Trump or Cruz. They will settle on someone who is safe and who they think represents the purposes of the Republican Party. That person is Jeb Bush.

The reason why this happens is because the delegate count is not proportional to the vote. Almost all later states are winner take all. And even though the primaries are more proportional than ever before, there still is the likelihood that the candidate with roughly one-third of the vote by Super Tuesday will have the majority of the delegates and will win the nomination.

How the Delegate Count Works

In a four-way race, it is mathematically possible to get a majority delegate count with a small minority/plurality. In the winner-take-all primary states, you don’t need a majority to win all the delegates. In fact, in these states, it is mathematically possible to get 100 percent of the delegates with 25.1% of the popular vote in a close four-way race.

In the 2016 Republican primaries, 1,237 of 2,472 delegates are needed for a majority. It’s no accident that just 16 states will allocate 1260 delegates and most of these are winner-take all.

  1. California — 172 — June 7, 2016 (winner-take-all statewide and by district)
  2. Texas — 155 — March 1, 2016 (proportional with 20% threshold)
  3. Florida — 99 — March 15, 2016 (winner-take-all)
  4. New York — 95 — April 19, 2016 (proportional with 20% threshold)
  5. Georgia — 76 — March 1, 2016 (proportional with 20% threshold)
  6. North Carolina — 72 — March 15, 2016 (proportional)
  7. Pennsylvania — 71 — April 26 (winner-take-all)
  8. Illinois — 69 — March 15, 2016 (winner-take-all)
  9. Ohio — 66 — March 15, 2016 (winner-take-all)
  10. Michigan — 59 — March 8, 2016 (proportional with 15% threshold)
  11. Tennessee — 58 — March 1, 2016 (proportional with 20% threshold)
  12. Arizona — 58 — March 22, 2016 (winner-take-all)
  13. Indiana — 57 — May 3, 2016 (winner-take-all statewide and by district)
  14. Missouri — 52 — March 15, 2016 (winner take all above 50% or by district)
  15. New Jersey — 51 — June 7, 2016 (winner take all)
  16. Alabama — 50 — March 1, 2016 (proportional)

TOTAL — 1260 delegates

Well-organized campaigns do well in the states they absolutely have to win. This was John F. Kennedy’s strategy in the 1960 primaries. He and Robert Kennedy, his brother and campaign manager, picked the states they knew they had to win and concentrated there.

This is also the reason that the states appear in the order they do. States will lose their delegates if they do not hold their primaries when the Republican National Committee says so. There is a delegate math that ensures that a certain type of candidate will win. Note that California, which is the largest delegate count state, is at the very end. By that time, whoever is the front runner usually wins California outright and gets almost all the delegates.

Florida is similar. Florida is a huge state it has the third most delegates behind California and Texas. In the past, Florida move its primary up, so that we would influence the other primary elections. But the Democratic and Republican National Committees penalized Florida for doing this. If you remember, Hillary lost all of her delegates and that is the reason why Barack Obama won the nomination for the Democrats even though she won the popular vote. The Republicans did something similar. Although Romney won Florida outright, they made it so that he would lose only half his delegates. In the end, Romney still won handily.

Another nuance is that when a candidate with delegates drops out of the race, his committed delegates are bound to the candidate, but the uncommitted delegates can be ceded to the front runner or the “favorite son.”

So this is how it is rigged. They count all the votes, but many (even possibly most) votes don’t add up in the delegate math because there are these nuances in the rules.

You may ask yourself, why doesn’t either party do a straight out popular vote count to determine its nominee in the primaries? The reason for this is that in a multiple person race it will drag on and no one will end up with the majority. They want to make it look as though the party is united behind one candidate. So psychologically, when Republicans and Democrats see a candidate in the lead, who they think can bring the party victory in November, they will coalesce around that one candidate.

Let me reiterate, that is neither Cruz nor Trump.

For as long as Bush or Rubio have 12% of the vote in the early primaries, they are the two front runners. I believe that Rubio will be the next nominee after Bush in 2020 or 2024, but I am getting ahead of myself.

The reason Trump has been so popular in the 2015/2016 polls is because he means big money to the major media outlets. They want him to win. First, because he is vastly entertaining and it’s making them millions of dollars. Second, they believe that he is the worst possible candidate for the Republicans. The liberal media outlets want him to win so the Republicans can lose in November. They see him as easily beatable by Queen Hillary who they believe will coast to an easy coronation.

It is a bizarre Orwellian notion that the media can somehow wag the dog and influence primary elections. Thankfully, they’re almost never right. None of the major conservative media moguls are willing to say that the emperor has no clothes. No one is willing to say what everyone knows.

The only one so far I know who is doing this is Glenn Beck, who doesn’t seem to think that what he says matters to his popularity too much. Glenn Beck says a lot of crazy stuff, but in this case he is accurate. Beck said on January 15th that a Trump presidency would be a “monster much, much worse than anything that Barack Obama could have dreamt.”

A Trump nomination would be a disaster for the Republican Party. Not only would Trump lose the general election, but it would change the Republican Party forever. A huge number of Republicans will leave the party if Trump wins. Many Republicans, including myself, would see that the only viable alternative to this disaster would be a third party candidate.

So while I’d like to the Republican Party implode in favor of a replacement, such as the Constitution Party, I recognize that this will probably never happen. The powers that be behind the scenes are not so stupid as to let the GOP commit suicide.

Your comments are welcome!

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A Revival Account: Asbury 1970 (DVD)

What is true Revival and Spiritual Awakening?

Discover the answer in this eyewitness account by Dennis Kinlaw, President of Asbury College, Wilmore, Kentucky, who recounts the story of a visitation of the Holy Spirit in 1970. This is the presentation that has continued to spark the flames of Revival in the hearts of people around the world. Contains eyewitness footage from the Revival at Asbury College in 1970 in Wilmore, Kentucky.

Certain to challenge you to greater holiness and a deeper commitment to full-scale revival. Original news and private footage has been included. If you are a student who longs to see a spiritual awakening at your school, you must see this video!

“This simple video does a wonderful job of conveying something of God’s heart and power, Everyone we have ever shown this to has received an immediate impartation of faith for revival and the power of prayer.”
— Bob and Rose Weiner, Weiner Ministries Int’l

Running Time: 40 minutes

Special discount price:
(We accept PayPal and all major credit cards.)

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Frank Schaeffer Will You Please Shut Up! (Book)

High Quality Paperback — 200 pages

A Reasonable Response to Christian Postmodernism

Includes a response to the book Christian Jihad by Colonel V. Doner

The title of this book is a misnomer. In reality, I am not trying to get anyone to shut up, but rather to provoke a discussion. This book is a warning about the philosophy of “Christian postmodernism” and the threat that it poses not only to Christian orthodoxy, but to the peace and prosperity our culture as well. The purpose is to equip the reader with some basic principles that can be used to refute their arguments.

Part 1 is a response to some of the recent writings by Frank Schaeffer, the son of the late Francis Schaeffer. This was originally written as a defense against Frank’s attacks on pro-life street activism – a movement that his father helped bring into being through his books, A Christian Manifesto, How Should We Then Live? and Whatever Happened to the Human Race? These works have impacted literally hundreds of thousands of Christian activists.

Part 2 is a response to Colonel Doner and his book, Christian Jihad: Neo-Fundamentalists and the Polarization of America. Doner was one of the key architects of the Christian Right that emerged in the 1980s, who now represents the disillusionment and defection many Christian activists experienced in the 1990s and 2000s. There is still great hope for America to be reformed according to biblical principles. As a new generation is emerging, it is important to recognize the mistakes that Christian activists have made in the past even while holding to a vision for the future.

Special discount price:
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The Silent Scream (DVD) Eight Languages

“When the lives of the unborn are snuffed out, they often feel pain, pain that is long and agonizing.” – President Ronald Reagan to National Religious Broadcasters Convention, January 1981

Ronald Reagan became convinced of this as a result of watching The Silent Scream – a movie he considered so powerful and convicting that he screened it at the White House.

The modern technology of real-time ultrasound now reveals the actual responses of a 12-week old fetus to being aborted. As the unborn child attempts to escape the abortionist’s suction curette, her motions can be seen to become desperately agitated and her heart rate doubles. Her mouth opens – as if to scream – but no sound can come out. Her scream doesn’t have to remain silent, however … not if you will become her voice. This newly re-mastered version features eight language tracks and two bonus videos.

“… a high technology “Uncle Tom’s Cabin” arousing public opinion just as Harriet Beecher Stowe’s 1852 antislavery novel ignited the abolitionist movement.” – Sen. Gordon Humphrey, Time Magazine

Languages: English, Spanish, French, South Korean, Chinese, Russian, Portuguese, Japanese

Running Time: 28 minutes

Special discount price:
(We accept PayPal and all major credit cards.)

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Amazing GraceAmazing Grace: The History and Theology of Calvinism (DVD)

Download the Free Study Guide!

Just what is Calvinism?

Does this teaching make man a deterministic robot and God the author of sin? What about free will? If the church accepts Calvinism, won’t evangelism be stifled, perhaps even extinguished? How can we balance God’s sovereignty and man’s responsibility? What are the differences between historic Calvinism and hyper-Calvinism? Why did men like Augustine, Luther, Calvin, Spurgeon, Whitefield, Edwards and a host of renowned Protestant evangelists embrace the teaching of predestination and election and deny free will theology?

This is the first video documentary that answers these and other related questions. Hosted by Eric Holmberg, this fascinating three-part, four-hour presentation is detailed enough so as to not gloss over the controversy. At the same time, it is broken up into ten “Sunday-school-sized” sections to make the rich content manageable and accessible for the average viewer.

Running Time: 257 minutes

Special discount price:
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Freedom: The Model of Christian Liberty (DVD)

“Give me liberty or give me death!”

Patrick Henry’s famous declaration not only helped launch the War for Independence, it also perfectly summarized the mindset that gave birth to, and sustained, the unprecedented experiment in Christian liberty that was America.

The freedom our Founders envisioned was not freedom from suffering, want, or hard work. Nor was it freedom to indulge every appetite or whim without restraint—that would merely be servitude to a different master. No, the Founders’ passion was to live free before God, unfettered by the chains of autocracy, shackles that slowly but inexorably bind men when the governments they fashion fail to recognize and uphold freedom’s singular, foundational truth: that all men are created in the image of God, and are thereby co-equally endowed with the right to “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.”

This presentation is a similar call, not to one but many. By reintroducing the principles of freedom that gave birth to America, it is our prayer that Jesus, the true and only ruler over the nations, will once again be our acknowledged Sovereign, that we may again know and exult in the great truth that “where the Spirit of the LORD is, there is liberty” (2 Cor. 3:17).

Welcome to the Second American Revolution!

This DVD features “Liberty: The Model of Christian Liberty” along with “Dawn’s Early Light: A Brief History of America’s Christian Foundations.” Bonus features include a humorous but instructive collection of campaign ads and Eric Holmberg’s controversial YouTube challenge concerning Mitt Romney’s campaign for president.

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