The most important primary for Mike Huckabee this week is Virginia, which is winner take all — 63 delegates. It’s almost a “must win” for Huckabee. It would be a huge win and give him great momentum. It’s not over if he loses, but to keep his momentum going forward, he has to take all the Virginia delegates or do surprisingly well in both Virginia and Maryland.
Here is what the Mason Dixon poll showed for last Thursday and Friday.
McCain – 55%
Huckabee – 27%
Paul – 5%
If you are like me, you are saying, “Huh? Where are those missing 13 percent?”
These are the Romney supporters and the undecided voters. Conventional wisdom says that at least half of these go to Huckabee, a few to McCain and the rest stay home. So let’s say that 7 percent of these go to Huckabee.
We also have to take into consideration that Saturday’s results are going to energize the ABC (Anybody But ‘Cain) base. Huckabee will get another “bump” from this. That gives him 5 more points easily. We also have to look at the low voter turn-out that led to Huckabee’s victories in Louisiana and Kansas. If few of McCain’s supporters turn out, it could skew the percentage vote toward Huckabee and Ron Paul, whose supporters are far more passionate and committed.
It could end up looking like this:
Huckabee – 44%
McCain – 43%
Paul – 8 %
Other – 5%
In an earlier post, I outlined how Mike Huckabee could win in 11 primary states and effectively block McCain from the nomination. I wrote that those states would most likely be: Louisiana, Kansas, Virginia, Maryland, Texas, Nebraska, Mississipi, North Carolina, Kentucky, Idaho, and South Dakota.
Now with Huckabee’s blow out win in Kansas, a narrow win in Louisiana (a state he did not campaign in) and a surprising showing in Washington, I’ve become a little more optimistic that this could play out.
Below are my predictions for how the rest of the primaries could go if the current trend continues.
Red states are likely to go to Huckabee.
Blues states are likely to go to McCain.
Purple states could go either way.
STATE—————- DATE —————- DELEGATES
Virginia ————02/12—————- 63 W
Maryland————-02/12—————- 37 C
Puerto Rico———02/24 ————— 23
Ohio ——————03/04 ————— 88
Rhode Island——-03/04—————- 20
Vermont—————03/04—————- 17 W
Pennsylvania——-03/22—————- 74 C
North Carolina—-05/06—————- 69
Hawaii—————-05/16—————- 20 C
Kentucky————-05/20—————- 45 C
Oregon—————-05/20—————- 30 C
New Mexico ———05/03—————- 32 C
South Dakota——-06/03—————- 27 C
W: Winner take all
C: Closed primary
Huckabee doesn’t have to win the nomination, but just block McCain and become the second candidate in a brokered convention. He can do this by winning most of the red states and get a few “surprise” victories in purple states.
At that point, he would choose Romney as a running mate and count on several hundred uncommitted delegates to push him over the top.
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Who is the dreaded beast of Revelation?
Now at last, a plausible candidate for this personification of evil incarnate has been identified (or re-identified). Ken Gentry’s insightful analysis of scripture and history is likely to revolutionize your understanding of the book of Revelation — and even more importantly — amplify and energize your entire Christian worldview!
Historical footage and other graphics are used to illustrate the lecture Dr. Gentry presented at the 1999 Ligonier Conference in Orlando, Florida. It is followed by a one-hour question and answer session addressing the key concerns and objections typically raised in response to his position. This presentation also features an introduction that touches on not only the confusion and controversy surrounding this issue — but just why it may well be one of the most significant issues facing the Church today.
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Exposes the Dangers of Abortion to Women!
These shocking eyewitness accounts expose the dangers of abortion not only to unborn children, but to the health and lives women as well. An antidote to the smokescreens of the liberal media, these short clips show what really happens in and around abortion clinics.
Although the content is emotionally gut-wrenching, these videos have been used in church seminars and small groups to educate Christians on the abortion issue and to lead people toward a pro-life position. Contains 2 hours and 40 minutes of materials that can be shown separately.
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With “preaching to the lost” being such a basic foundation of Christianity, why do many in the church seem to be apathetic on this issue of preaching in highways and byways of towns and cities?
Is it biblical to stand in the public places of the world and proclaim the gospel, regardless if people want to hear it or not?
Does the Bible really call church pastors, leaders and evangelists to proclaim the gospel in the public square as part of obedience to the Great Commission, or is public preaching something that is outdated and not applicable for our day and age?
These any many other questions are answered in this documentary.
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That Swiss Hermit Strikes Again!
Dr. Schaeffer, who was one of the most influential Christian thinkers in the twentieth century, shows that secular humanism has displaced the Judeo-Christian consensus that once defined our nation’s moral boundaries. Law, education, and medicine have all been reshaped for the worse as a consequence. America’s dominant worldview changed, Schaeffer charges, when Christians weren’t looking.
Schaeffer lists two reasons for evangelical indifference: a false concept of spirituality and fear. He calls on believers to stand against the tyranny and moral chaos that come when humanism reigns-and warns that believers may, at some point, be forced to make the hard choice between obeying God or Caesar. A Christian Manifesto is a thought-provoking and bracing Christian analysis of American culture and the obligation Christians have to engage the culture with the claims of Christ.
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“Here I stand … I can do no other!”
With these immortal words, an unknown German monk sparked a spiritual revolution that changed the world.
The dramatic classic film of Martin Luther’s life was released in theaters worldwide in the 1950s and was nominated for two Oscars. A magnificent depiction of Luther and the forces at work in the surrounding society that resulted in his historic reform efforts, this film traces Luther’s life from a guilt-burdened monk to his eventual break with the Roman Catholic Church.
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Watch a clip from Martin Luther.
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