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How Huckabee can win big in Virginia

The most important primary for Mike Huckabee this week is Virginia, which is winner take all — 63 delegates. It’s almost a “must win” for Huckabee. It would be a huge win and give him great momentum. It’s not over if he loses, but to keep his momentum going forward, he has to take all the Virginia delegates or do surprisingly well in both Virginia and Maryland.

Here is what the Mason Dixon poll showed for last Thursday and Friday.

McCain – 55%
Huckabee – 27%
Paul – 5%

If you are like me, you are saying, “Huh? Where are those missing 13 percent?”

These are the Romney supporters and the undecided voters. Conventional wisdom says that at least half of these go to Huckabee, a few to McCain and the rest stay home. So let’s say that 7 percent of these go to Huckabee.

We also have to take into consideration that Saturday’s results are going to energize the ABC (Anybody But ‘Cain) base. Huckabee will get another “bump” from this. That gives him 5 more points easily. We also have to look at the low voter turn-out that led to Huckabee’s victories in Louisiana and Kansas. If few of McCain’s supporters turn out, it could skew the percentage vote toward Huckabee and Ron Paul, whose supporters are far more passionate and committed.

It could end up looking like this:

Huckabee – 44%
McCain – 43%
Paul – 8 %
Other – 5%

In an earlier post, I outlined how Mike Huckabee could win in 11 primary states and effectively block McCain from the nomination. I wrote that those states would most likely be: Louisiana, Kansas, Virginia, Maryland, Texas, Nebraska, Mississipi, North Carolina, Kentucky, Idaho, and South Dakota.

Now with Huckabee’s blow out win in Kansas, a narrow win in Louisiana (a state he did not campaign in) and a surprising showing in Washington, I’ve become a little more optimistic that this could play out.

Below are my predictions for how the rest of the primaries could go if the current trend continues.

Red states are likely to go to Huckabee.
Blues states are likely to go to McCain.
Purple states could go either way.

STATE—————- DATE —————- DELEGATES

Virginia ————02/12—————- 63 W
Maryland————-02/12—————- 37 C
D.C.——————-02/12——————19 WC
Wisconsin————02/19—————- 40
Puerto Rico———02/24 ————— 23
Texas——————03/04—————-140
Ohio ——————03/04 ————— 88
Rhode Island——-03/04—————- 20
Vermont—————03/04—————- 17 W
Mississippi———03/10—————- 39
Pennsylvania——-03/22—————- 74 C
North Carolina—-05/06—————- 69
Indiana—————05/06—————- 57
Nebraska————-05/13—————- 33
Hawaii—————-05/16—————- 20 C
Kentucky————-05/20—————- 45 C
Oregon—————-05/20—————- 30 C
Idaho——————05/27—————- 32
New Mexico ———05/03—————- 32 C
South Dakota——-06/03—————- 27 C
____________________________

W: Winner take all
C: Closed primary
____________________________

Huckabee doesn’t have to win the nomination, but just block McCain and become the second candidate in a brokered convention. He can do this by winning most of the red states and get a few “surprise” victories in purple states.

At that point, he would choose Romney as a running mate and count on several hundred uncommitted delegates to push him over the top.

Your comments are welcome!

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Frank Schaeffer Will You Please Shut Up! (Book)

High Quality Paperback — 200 pages

A Reasonable Response to Christian Postmodernism

Includes a response to the book Christian Jihad by Colonel V. Doner

The title of this book is a misnomer. In reality, I am not trying to get anyone to shut up, but rather to provoke a discussion. This book is a warning about the philosophy of “Christian postmodernism” and the threat that it poses not only to Christian orthodoxy, but to the peace and prosperity our culture as well. The purpose is to equip the reader with some basic principles that can be used to refute their arguments.

Part 1 is a response to some of the recent writings by Frank Schaeffer, the son of the late Francis Schaeffer. This was originally written as a defense against Frank’s attacks on pro-life street activism – a movement that his father helped bring into being through his books, A Christian Manifesto, How Should We Then Live? and Whatever Happened to the Human Race? These works have impacted literally hundreds of thousands of Christian activists.

Part 2 is a response to Colonel Doner and his book, Christian Jihad: Neo-Fundamentalists and the Polarization of America. Doner was one of the key architects of the Christian Right that emerged in the 1980s, who now represents the disillusionment and defection many Christian activists experienced in the 1990s and 2000s. There is still great hope for America to be reformed according to biblical principles. As a new generation is emerging, it is important to recognize the mistakes that Christian activists have made in the past even while holding to a vision for the future.

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Amazing GraceAmazing Grace: The History and Theology of Calvinism (DVD)

Download the Free Study Guide!

Just what is Calvinism?

Does this teaching make man a deterministic robot and God the author of sin? What about free will? If the church accepts Calvinism, won’t evangelism be stifled, perhaps even extinguished? How can we balance God’s sovereignty and man’s responsibility? What are the differences between historic Calvinism and hyper-Calvinism? Why did men like Augustine, Luther, Calvin, Spurgeon, Whitefield, Edwards and a host of renowned Protestant evangelists embrace the teaching of predestination and election and deny free will theology?

This is the first video documentary that answers these and other related questions. Hosted by Eric Holmberg, this fascinating three-part, four-hour presentation is detailed enough so as to not gloss over the controversy. At the same time, it is broken up into ten “Sunday-school-sized” sections to make the rich content manageable and accessible for the average viewer.

Running Time: 257 minutes

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The United States of America 2.0: The Great Reset (Book)

High Quality Paperback — 40 pages of dynamite!

Revival, Resistance, Reformation, Revolution
An Introduction to the Doctrines of Interposition and Nullification

In 1776, a short time after the Declaration of Independence was adopted, Thomas Jefferson, John Adams and Benjamin Franklin were assigned to design an official seal for the United States of America. Their proposed motto was Rebellion to Tyrants is Obedience to God. America owes its existence to centuries of Christian political philosophy. Our nation provided a model for liberty copied by nations the world over.

By the 21st century, we need a “Puritan Storm” to sweep away the Hegelian notion that the state is “God walking on earth.” We need revival and reformation in full force to vanquish the problems that plague us as a nation — from government controlled healthcare — to abortion on demand — to same sex “marriage.” This booklet gives a primer on our founders’ Christian idea of government and examines how the doctrine of nullification was woven into the Constitution as a safeguard against federal tyranny. It concludes with the history and theology of civil resistance. A Second American Revolution is coming with the Word of God growing mightily and prevailing! (Acts 19:20).

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Why Creeds and Confessions? (Book)

High Quality Paperback — 219 pages

Foundations in Biblical Orthodoxy

Driving down a country road sometime, you might see a church with a sign proudly proclaiming: “No book but the Bible — No creed but Christ.” The problem with this statement is that the word creed (from the Latin: credo) simply means “belief.” All Christians have beliefs, regardless of whether they are written.

Yet a single book containing the actual texts of the most important creeds of the early Church will not often be found. Out of the multitude of works on the evangelical Christian book market today, those dealing with the creeds of the Church are scarce.

Why Creeds and Confessions? provides a foundation of biblical orthodoxy as a defense against the false and truly heretical doctrines advanced by the spirit of this age.

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Dr. Francis Schaeffer - A Christian Manifesto (DVD)

That Swiss Hermit Strikes Again!

Dr. Schaeffer, who was one of the most influential Christian thinkers in the twentieth century, shows that secular humanism has displaced the Judeo-Christian consensus that once defined our nation’s moral boundaries. Law, education, and medicine have all been reshaped for the worse as a consequence. America’s dominant worldview changed, Schaeffer charges, when Christians weren’t looking.

Schaeffer lists two reasons for evangelical indifference: a false concept of spirituality and fear. He calls on believers to stand against the tyranny and moral chaos that come when humanism reigns-and warns that believers may, at some point, be forced to make the hard choice between obeying God or Caesar. A Christian Manifesto is a thought-provoking and bracing Christian analysis of American culture and the obligation Christians have to engage the culture with the claims of Christ.

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