Jay Rogers
Director:
Jay Rogers

Links Recent Posts Recent articles

Archives

The Forerunner

How Huckabee can win big in Virginia

The most important primary for Mike Huckabee this week is Virginia, which is winner take all — 63 delegates. It’s almost a “must win” for Huckabee. It would be a huge win and give him great momentum. It’s not over if he loses, but to keep his momentum going forward, he has to take all the Virginia delegates or do surprisingly well in both Virginia and Maryland.

Here is what the Mason Dixon poll showed for last Thursday and Friday.

McCain – 55%
Huckabee – 27%
Paul – 5%

If you are like me, you are saying, “Huh? Where are those missing 13 percent?”

These are the Romney supporters and the undecided voters. Conventional wisdom says that at least half of these go to Huckabee, a few to McCain and the rest stay home. So let’s say that 7 percent of these go to Huckabee.

We also have to take into consideration that Saturday’s results are going to energize the ABC (Anybody But ‘Cain) base. Huckabee will get another “bump” from this. That gives him 5 more points easily. We also have to look at the low voter turn-out that led to Huckabee’s victories in Louisiana and Kansas. If few of McCain’s supporters turn out, it could skew the percentage vote toward Huckabee and Ron Paul, whose supporters are far more passionate and committed.

It could end up looking like this:

Huckabee – 44%
McCain – 43%
Paul – 8 %
Other – 5%

In an earlier post, I outlined how Mike Huckabee could win in 11 primary states and effectively block McCain from the nomination. I wrote that those states would most likely be: Louisiana, Kansas, Virginia, Maryland, Texas, Nebraska, Mississipi, North Carolina, Kentucky, Idaho, and South Dakota.

Now with Huckabee’s blow out win in Kansas, a narrow win in Louisiana (a state he did not campaign in) and a surprising showing in Washington, I’ve become a little more optimistic that this could play out.

Below are my predictions for how the rest of the primaries could go if the current trend continues.

Red states are likely to go to Huckabee.
Blues states are likely to go to McCain.
Purple states could go either way.

STATE—————- DATE —————- DELEGATES

Virginia ————02/12—————- 63 W
Maryland————-02/12—————- 37 C
D.C.——————-02/12——————19 WC
Wisconsin————02/19—————- 40
Puerto Rico———02/24 ————— 23
Texas——————03/04—————-140
Ohio ——————03/04 ————— 88
Rhode Island——-03/04—————- 20
Vermont—————03/04—————- 17 W
Mississippi———03/10—————- 39
Pennsylvania——-03/22—————- 74 C
North Carolina—-05/06—————- 69
Indiana—————05/06—————- 57
Nebraska————-05/13—————- 33
Hawaii—————-05/16—————- 20 C
Kentucky————-05/20—————- 45 C
Oregon—————-05/20—————- 30 C
Idaho——————05/27—————- 32
New Mexico ———05/03—————- 32 C
South Dakota——-06/03—————- 27 C
____________________________

W: Winner take all
C: Closed primary
____________________________

Huckabee doesn’t have to win the nomination, but just block McCain and become the second candidate in a brokered convention. He can do this by winning most of the red states and get a few “surprise” victories in purple states.

At that point, he would choose Romney as a running mate and count on several hundred uncommitted delegates to push him over the top.

«-

Related Articles


Your comments are welcome!

Textile help

Amazing GraceAmazing Grace: The History and Theology of Calvinism (DVD)

Download the Free Study Guide!

Just what is Calvinism?

Does this teaching make man a deterministic robot and God the author of sin? What about free will? If the church accepts Calvinism, won’t evangelism be stifled, perhaps even extinguished? How can we balance God’s sovereignty and man’s responsibility? What are the differences between historic Calvinism and hyper-Calvinism? Why did men like Augustine, Luther, Calvin, Spurgeon, Whitefield, Edwards and a host of renowned Protestant evangelists embrace the teaching of predestination and election and deny free will theology?

This is the first video documentary that answers these and other related questions. Hosted by Eric Holmberg, this fascinating three-part, four-hour presentation is detailed enough so as to not gloss over the controversy. At the same time, it is broken up into ten “Sunday-school-sized” sections to make the rich content manageable and accessible for the average viewer.

Running Time: 257 minutes

Special discount price:

(We accept PayPal and all major credit cards.)

Click here for more information


The Four Keys to the Millennium (Book)

Foundations in Biblical Eschatology

By Jay Rogers, Larry Waugh, Rodney Stortz, Joseph Meiring. High quality paperback, 167 pages.

All Christians believe that their great God and Savior, Jesus Christ, will one day return. Although we cannot know the exact time of His return, what exactly did Jesus mean when he spoke of the signs of His coming (Mat. 24)? How are we to interpret the prophecies in Isaiah regarding the time when “the earth will be full of the knowledge of the LORD as the waters cover the sea” (Isa. 11:19)? Should we expect a time of great tribulation and apostasy or revival and reformation before the Lord returns? Is the devil bound now, and are the saints reigning with Christ? Did you know that there are four hermeneutical approaches to the book of Daniel and Revelation?

These and many more questions are dealt with by four authors as they present the four views on the millennium. Each view is then critiqued by the other three authors.

Special discount prices:

(We accept PayPal and all major credit cards.)

Click here for more information


The Real Jesus: A Defense of the Historicity and Divinity of ChristThe Real Jesus: A Defense of the Historicity and Divinity of Christ (DVD)

Who is the Real Jesus?

Ever since the dawn of modern rationalism, skeptics have sought to use textual criticism, archeology and historical reconstructions to uncover the “historical Jesus” — a wise teacher who said many wonderful things, but fulfilled no prophecies, performed no miracles and certainly did not rise from the dead in triumph over sin.

Over the past 100 years, however, startling discoveries in biblical archeology and scholarship have all but vanquished the faulty assumptions of these doubting modernists. Regrettably, these discoveries have often been ignored by the skeptics as well as by the popular media. As a result, the liberal view still holds sway in universities and impacts the culture and even much of the church.

The Real Jesus explodes the myths of these critics and the movies, books and television programs that have popularized their views. Presented in ten parts — perfect for individual, family and classroom study — viewers will be challenged to go deeper in their knowledge of Christ in order to be able to defend their faith and present the truth to a skeptical modern world – that the Jesus of the Gospels is the Jesus of history — “the same yesterday, today and forever” (Hebrews 13:8). He is the real Jesus.

Speakers include: George Grant, Ted Baehr, Stephen Mansfield, Raymond Ortlund, Phil Kayser, David Lutzweiler, Jay Grimstead, J.P. Holding, and Eric Holmberg.

Ten parts, over two hours of instruction!

Running Time: 130 minutes

Special discount price:

(We accept PayPal and all major credit cards.)

Click here for more information


A Revival Account: Asbury 1970 (DVD)

What is true Revival and Spiritual Awakening?

Discover the answer in this eyewitness account by Dennis Kinlaw, President of Asbury College, Wilmore, Kentucky, who recounts the story of a visitation of the Holy Spirit in 1970. This is the presentation that has continued to spark the flames of Revival in the hearts of people around the world. Contains eyewitness footage from the Revival at Asbury College in 1970 in Wilmore, Kentucky.

Certain to challenge you to greater holiness and a deeper commitment to full-scale revival. Original news and private footage has been included. If you are a student who longs to see a spiritual awakening at your school, you must see this video!

“This simple video does a wonderful job of conveying something of God’s heart and power, Everyone we have ever shown this to has received an immediate impartation of faith for revival and the power of prayer.”
— Bob and Rose Weiner, Weiner Ministries Int’l

Running Time: 40 minutes

Special discount price:

(We accept PayPal and all major credit cards.)

Click here for more information


Go Stand Speak (DVD)

With “preaching to the lost” being such a basic foundation of Christianity, why do many in the church seem to be apathetic on this issue of preaching in highways and byways of towns and cities?

Is it biblical to stand in the public places of the world and proclaim the gospel, regardless if people want to hear it or not?

Does the Bible really call church pastors, leaders and evangelists to proclaim the gospel in the public square as part of obedience to the Great Commission, or is public preaching something that is outdated and not applicable for our day and age?

These any many other questions are answered in this documentary.

Special discount price:

(We accept PayPal and all major credit cards.)

Click here for more information

Share |


RSS
Subscribe to
The Forerunner

Have The Forerunner blog sent straight to your inbox!

Enter your email address:

YouTube
The Forerunner Channel on YouTube

Featured Product
If you like the articles on this website, you may also be interested in:

Featured Articles

Live Seminar!

Real Jesus
The Abortion Matrix DVD: Update

The Abortion Matrix:
Defeating Child Sacrifice and the Culture of Death

is a 195-minute presentation that traces the biblical roots of child sacrifice and then delves into the social, political and cultural fall-out that this sin against God has produced. You can order this series on DVD, read the complete script and view clips on-line...
continued ...


View My Stats