Who will win the Republican nomination?
I don’t think John McCain can win the nomination with an outright majority. Too much of the conservative base of the Republican Party is stacked against him. Depending on who does better on Super Tuesday, Romney and Huckabee ought to forge a deal to block McCain. Together they might have more delegates than McCain. I would not be surprised to see them finish out as a “combined ticket” depending on who is in second and third place respectively.
I voted for Mike Huckabee on Tuesday and was berated last week by Christians who were both Ron Paul supporters and Mitt Romney supporters. The Paul supporters thought I was making a bad choice in voting for a “fiscal liberal.” The Romney supporters thought that I was helping McCain win by voting for Huckabee merely because he is the strongest pro-life candidate.
Thankfully, none of my Christian friends voted for McCain — even though nationally he’s getting a good slice of the evangelical vote. My friends who are Ron Paul supporters are either Christian Reconstructionists or those convinced that a “New World Order” is looming on the horizon and Paul is supposedly the only one who can save us from it. The few who voted for Romney are taken in by the idea that Huckabee could not possibly beat the Clintons — even though he’s stood up to their political machine in Arkansas and won — twice.
I am amazed at the number of people who believe the media hype that McCain is destined to be coronated on Super Tuesday. Less than 10 percent of the delegates have been chosen. The daily tracking polls a few days after the Florida primary show Romney and McCain tied or within one percent of each other at around 29 percent nationally. Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee’s support has rebounded to around 20 percent. With the margin of error inherent in all polls, it’s anybody’s nomination.
What really surprises me is the daily tracking polls. Everyone assumed that with Thompson and Giuliani out of the race that all these votes would go to McCain or Romney and Huckabee’s standing would continue to plummet. Yet Huckabee has gained about five percentage points this week in national polls while Romney and McCain are holding steady. No one has more than one-third of the voters yet in any poll.
A candidate needs 1,191 delegates to win a 51 percent majority.
This is how it stands before Super Tuesday.
McCain — 93
Romney — 59
Huckabee — 40
If McCain finishes first in the “winner take all” states, he’s in good shape to be the frontrunner. But if Romney and McCain split the big delegate contests evenly, then it’s a close race in most of the upcoming primary states. If Huckabee can take Missouri, Alabama, Tennesee, Georgia and show well in Illinois, it won’t make him the frontrunner, but he will move forward. There will still be a three man race with little more than half the delegates chosen.
Add to this the fact that McCain’s negatives are higher among the conservative Republican base than Romney’s and Huckabee’s. Then consider that many of the contests are closed primaries in which only Republicans can vote. So even if McCain goes into the convention with the most delegates, a plurality does not guarantee the winner. An argument could be made that since most of the conservative base of Republicans went for someone other than McCain, then someone else should be the nominee. Then we are likely looking at Romney/Huckabee or a Huckabee/Romney ticket.
-
«- More on the Mike Huckabee rapist "pardon"
- Current Events and Issues
- Politics
-» Is John McCain the inevitable nominee?
Your comments are welcome!
A Revival Account: Asbury 1970 (DVD)
What is true Revival and Spiritual Awakening?
Discover the answer in this eyewitness account by Dennis Kinlaw, President of Asbury College, Wilmore, Kentucky, who recounts the story of a visitation of the Holy Spirit in 1970. This is the presentation that has continued to spark the flames of Revival in the hearts of people around the world. Contains eyewitness footage from the Revival at Asbury College in 1970 in Wilmore, Kentucky.
Certain to challenge you to greater holiness and a deeper commitment to full-scale revival. Original news and private footage has been included. If you are a student who longs to see a spiritual awakening at your school, you must see this video!
“This simple video does a wonderful job of conveying something of God’s heart and power, Everyone we have ever shown this to has received an immediate impartation of faith for revival and the power of prayer.”
— Bob and Rose Weiner, Weiner Ministries Int’l
Running Time: 40 minutes
$19.95 — ORDER NOW!
(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)Click here for more information
The Silent Scream (DVD) Eight Languages
“When the lives of the unborn are snuffed out, they often feel pain, pain that is long and agonizing.” – President Ronald Reagan to National Religious Broadcasters Convention, January 1981
Ronald Reagan became convinced of this as a result of watching The Silent Scream – a movie he considered so powerful and convicting that he screened it at the White House.
The modern technology of real-time ultrasound now reveals the actual responses of a 12-week old fetus to being aborted. As the unborn child attempts to escape the abortionist’s suction curette, her motions can be seen to become desperately agitated and her heart rate doubles. Her mouth opens – as if to scream – but no sound can come out. Her scream doesn’t have to remain silent, however … not if you will become her voice. This newly re-mastered version features eight language tracks and two bonus videos.
“…a high technology “Uncle Tom’s Cabin” arousing public opinion just as Harriet Beecher Stowe’s 1852 antislavery novel ignited the abolitionist movement.” – Sen. Gordon Humphrey, Time Magazine
Languages: English, Spanish, French, South Korean, Chinese, Russian, Portuguese, Japanese
Running Time: 28 minutes
$17.95 — ORDER NOW!
(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)Click here for more information
God's Law and Society (DVD)
Download the Free Study Guide!
God’s Law and Society powerfully presents a comprehensive worldview based upon the ethical system found in the Law of God.
Speakers include: R.J. Rushdoony, George Grant, Howard Phillips, R.C. Sproul Jr., Ken Gentry, Gary DeMar, Jay Grimstead, Steven Schlissel, Andrew Sandlin, Eric Holmberg, and more!
Sixteen Christian leaders and scholars answer some of the most common questions and misconceptions related to this volatile issue:
1. Are we under Law or under Grace?
2. Does the Old Testament Law apply today?
3. Can we legislate morality?
4. What are the biblical foundations of government?
5. Was America founded as a Christian nation?
6. What about the separation of Church and State?
7. Is neutrality a myth?
8. What about non-Christians and the Law of God?
9. Would there be “freedom” in a Christian republic?
10. What would a “Christian America” look like?
Perfect for group instruction as well as personal Bible study.
Ten parts, over four hours of instruction!
Running Time: 240 minutes
Watch over 60 on-line video interviews from God’s Law and Society.
$19.95 — ORDER NOW!
(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)Click here for more information
The Beast of Revelation: Identified (DVD)
Who is the dreaded beast of Revelation?
Now at last, a plausible candidate for this personification of evil incarnate has been identified (or re-identified). Ken Gentry’s insightful analysis of scripture and history is likely to revolutionize your understanding of the book of Revelation — and even more importantly — amplify and energize your entire Christian worldview!
Historical footage and other graphics are used to illustrate the lecture Dr. Gentry presented at the 1999 Ligonier Conference in Orlando, Florida. It is followed by a one-hour question and answer session addressing the key concerns and objections typically raised in response to his position. This presentation also features an introduction that touches on not only the confusion and controversy surrounding this issue — but just why it may well be one of the most significant issues facing the Church today.
Ideal for group meetings, personal Bible study — for anyone who wants to understand the historical context of John’s famous letter “… to the seven churches which are in Asia.” (Revelation 1:4)
Running Time: 145 minutes
$17.95 — ORDER NOW!
(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)Click here for more information
Martin Luther: Digitally Remastered 1953 Classic (DVD)
“Here I stand … I can do no other!”
With these immortal words, an unknown German monk sparked a spiritual revolution that changed the world.
The dramatic classic film of Martin Luther’s life was released in theaters worldwide in the 1950s and was nominated for two Oscars. A magnificent depiction of Luther and the forces at work in the surrounding society that resulted in his historic reform efforts, this film traces Luther’s life from a guilt-burdened monk to his eventual break with the Roman Catholic Church.
Running time: 105 minutes
Special offer: Order 5 or more for $5 each.
Watch a clip from Martin Luther.
$9.95 — ORDER NOW!
(We accept all major credit cards and PayPal.)
